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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 25 from efed18a d8fc3a2 19 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 25 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 25 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 25 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (18 runs, generated 2026-08-03T12:12:04Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9410 0.0098 144 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5470 0.0196 144 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3243 0.0106 144 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9514 0.0309 144 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7107 0.0103 144 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1468 0.0204 144 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4619 0.0202 144 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4564 0.0133 144 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7235 0.0239 144 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6409 0.0171 144 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 1.0256 0.0126 144 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2249 0.0152 144 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4879 0.0173 144 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.2036 0.0272 144 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9749 0.0103 144 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0782 0.0172 144 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5578 0.0098 144 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2978 0.0120 144 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1027 0.0044 144 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 5.9882 0.0312 144 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0575 0.0059 144 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 6.9782 0.0617 144 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0416 0.0132 144 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0614 0.0227 144 5.0480
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