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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 83 from efed18a d603554 76 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 83 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 83 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 83 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (75 runs, generated 2026-08-09T19:33:32Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9312 0.0051 600 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5472 0.0091 600 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3132 0.0047 600 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9594 0.0174 600 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7205 0.0054 600 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1363 0.0090 600 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4749 0.0096 600 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4490 0.0076 600 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7551 0.0112 600 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6556 0.0086 600 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9869 0.0079 600 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2257 0.0085 600 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4784 0.0085 600 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1838 0.0108 600 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9734 0.0041 600 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0829 0.0096 600 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5563 0.0044 600 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3013 0.0061 600 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1079 0.0031 600 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0340 0.0201 600 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0655 0.0039 600 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0801 0.0433 600 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0381 0.0057 600 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0734 0.0130 600 5.0480
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