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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 16 from efed18a cc902b2 10 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 16 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 16 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 16 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (9 runs, generated 2026-08-02T11:58:58Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9410 0.0148 72 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5264 0.0284 72 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3388 0.0164 72 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9197 0.0469 72 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7124 0.0168 72 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1454 0.0301 72 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4773 0.0271 72 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4551 0.0208 72 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7561 0.0335 72 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6253 0.0304 72 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 1.0167 0.0200 72 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2271 0.0211 72 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4751 0.0231 72 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1935 0.0437 72 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9729 0.0109 72 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0535 0.0196 72 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5615 0.0142 72 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3012 0.0176 72 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.0978 0.0053 72 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 5.9979 0.0408 72 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0634 0.0078 72 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 6.9827 0.0900 72 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0317 0.0163 72 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0813 0.0361 72 5.0480
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