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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 192 from efed18a bba36e0 176 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 192 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 192 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 192 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (175 runs, generated 2026-08-19T07:33:03Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9329 0.0033 1400 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5512 0.0068 1400 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3139 0.0030 1400 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9867 0.0171 1400 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7238 0.0040 1400 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1310 0.0051 1400 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4794 0.0063 1400 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4438 0.0056 1400 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7583 0.0072 1400 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6678 0.0055 1400 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9916 0.0051 1400 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2087 0.0056 1400 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4816 0.0056 1400 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1731 0.0064 1400 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9743 0.0025 1400 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0887 0.0065 1400 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5571 0.0028 1400 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3111 0.0048 1400 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1057 0.0018 1400 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0271 0.0154 1400 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0638 0.0029 1400 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0425 0.0272 1400 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0446 0.0039 1400 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0437 0.0073 1400 5.0480
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