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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 160 from efed18a b7ebdb0 148 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 160 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 160 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 160 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (147 runs, generated 2026-08-16T15:20:50Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9334 0.0036 1176 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5508 0.0078 1176 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3125 0.0033 1176 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9890 0.0191 1176 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7266 0.0043 1176 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1289 0.0055 1176 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4782 0.0067 1176 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4419 0.0058 1176 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7589 0.0078 1176 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6658 0.0061 1176 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9929 0.0055 1176 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2088 0.0062 1176 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4795 0.0061 1176 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1754 0.0071 1176 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9745 0.0028 1176 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0883 0.0071 1176 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5560 0.0031 1176 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3104 0.0049 1176 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1055 0.0019 1176 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0198 0.0171 1176 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0668 0.0034 1176 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0449 0.0302 1176 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0386 0.0040 1176 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0485 0.0083 1176 5.0480
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