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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 154 from efed18a b3b9f1f 142 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 154 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 154 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 154 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (141 runs, generated 2026-08-16T03:58:04Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9335 0.0037 1128 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5491 0.0080 1128 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3124 0.0033 1128 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9811 0.0180 1128 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7270 0.0043 1128 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1299 0.0057 1128 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4775 0.0069 1128 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4407 0.0059 1128 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7613 0.0079 1128 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6667 0.0063 1128 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9922 0.0056 1128 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2095 0.0064 1128 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4809 0.0063 1128 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1761 0.0073 1128 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9755 0.0028 1128 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0892 0.0073 1128 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5562 0.0031 1128 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3095 0.0050 1128 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1056 0.0019 1128 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0071 0.0145 1128 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0671 0.0035 1128 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0466 0.0310 1128 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0392 0.0041 1128 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0505 0.0086 1128 5.0480
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