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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 176 from efed18a b2ea37f 164 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 176 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 176 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 176 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (163 runs, generated 2026-08-17T23:12:14Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9345 0.0034 1304 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5516 0.0072 1304 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3131 0.0032 1304 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9857 0.0177 1304 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7266 0.0041 1304 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1299 0.0052 1304 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4793 0.0065 1304 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4445 0.0059 1304 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7594 0.0074 1304 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6667 0.0058 1304 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9917 0.0052 1304 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2089 0.0059 1304 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4816 0.0058 1304 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1724 0.0065 1304 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9742 0.0026 1304 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0874 0.0067 1304 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5561 0.0029 1304 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3118 0.0051 1304 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1059 0.0018 1304 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0238 0.0160 1304 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0640 0.0031 1304 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0445 0.0286 1304 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0428 0.0040 1304 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0445 0.0077 1304 5.0480
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