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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 181 from efed18a ac35fbe 169 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 181 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 181 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 181 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (168 runs, generated 2026-08-18T09:29:52Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9346 0.0033 1344 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5513 0.0071 1344 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3139 0.0031 1344 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9839 0.0173 1344 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7259 0.0040 1344 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1305 0.0052 1344 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4790 0.0064 1344 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4445 0.0057 1344 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7591 0.0073 1344 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6672 0.0057 1344 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9907 0.0052 1344 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2095 0.0057 1344 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4818 0.0057 1344 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1715 0.0064 1344 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9738 0.0026 1344 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0894 0.0066 1344 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5565 0.0029 1344 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3115 0.0049 1344 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1058 0.0018 1344 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0281 0.0157 1344 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0638 0.0030 1344 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0401 0.0280 1344 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0433 0.0039 1344 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0429 0.0075 1344 5.0480
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