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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 62 from efed18a a808ade 55 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 62 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 62 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 62 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (54 runs, generated 2026-08-07T21:35:37Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9374 0.0057 432 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5513 0.0113 432 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3144 0.0056 432 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9687 0.0221 432 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7186 0.0064 432 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1316 0.0107 432 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4737 0.0115 432 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4545 0.0092 432 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7542 0.0134 432 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6572 0.0094 432 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9926 0.0089 432 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2269 0.0106 432 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4857 0.0102 432 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1877 0.0138 432 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9725 0.0050 432 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0817 0.0114 432 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5607 0.0051 432 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2977 0.0072 432 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1066 0.0039 432 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0228 0.0222 432 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0655 0.0043 432 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0726 0.0512 432 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0341 0.0069 432 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0687 0.0158 432 5.0480
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