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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 153 from efed18a 94c70a2 141 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 153 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 153 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 153 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (140 runs, generated 2026-08-16T02:30:00Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9334 0.0037 1120 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5491 0.0081 1120 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3125 0.0034 1120 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9818 0.0181 1120 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7262 0.0044 1120 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1298 0.0057 1120 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4774 0.0069 1120 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4406 0.0058 1120 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7614 0.0080 1120 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6671 0.0063 1120 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9924 0.0057 1120 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2093 0.0064 1120 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4816 0.0063 1120 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1764 0.0074 1120 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9753 0.0028 1120 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0899 0.0074 1120 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5561 0.0031 1120 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3083 0.0050 1120 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1056 0.0020 1120 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0078 0.0145 1120 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0670 0.0035 1120 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0480 0.0312 1120 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0394 0.0041 1120 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0511 0.0086 1120 5.0480
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