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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 147 from efed18a 8097162 135 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 147 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 147 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 147 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (134 runs, generated 2026-08-15T13:33:23Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9324 0.0038 1072 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5509 0.0084 1072 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3117 0.0034 1072 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9813 0.0187 1072 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7243 0.0043 1072 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1301 0.0059 1072 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4786 0.0072 1072 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4401 0.0060 1072 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7599 0.0082 1072 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6674 0.0065 1072 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9935 0.0057 1072 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2095 0.0066 1072 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4818 0.0065 1072 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1766 0.0076 1072 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9758 0.0029 1072 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0873 0.0074 1072 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5559 0.0032 1072 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3088 0.0051 1072 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1053 0.0020 1072 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0130 0.0150 1072 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0670 0.0036 1072 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0477 0.0322 1072 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0381 0.0042 1072 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0520 0.0089 1072 5.0480
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