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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 173 from efed18a 7c4f6cc 161 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 173 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 173 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 173 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (160 runs, generated 2026-08-17T17:09:17Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9340 0.0034 1280 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5515 0.0073 1280 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3134 0.0032 1280 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9819 0.0177 1280 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7275 0.0042 1280 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1301 0.0052 1280 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4794 0.0066 1280 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4450 0.0059 1280 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7586 0.0075 1280 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6670 0.0058 1280 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9912 0.0053 1280 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2090 0.0059 1280 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4811 0.0058 1280 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1739 0.0066 1280 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9743 0.0027 1280 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0886 0.0068 1280 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5559 0.0029 1280 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3110 0.0051 1280 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1059 0.0019 1280 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0224 0.0162 1280 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0644 0.0032 1280 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0470 0.0289 1280 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0428 0.0041 1280 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0456 0.0077 1280 5.0480
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