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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 115 from efed18a 76cf23f 103 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 115 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 115 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 115 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (102 runs, generated 2026-08-12T17:43:18Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9312 0.0044 816 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5419 0.0075 816 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3099 0.0041 816 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9685 0.0181 816 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7247 0.0047 816 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1331 0.0071 816 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4771 0.0082 816 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4446 0.0066 816 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7607 0.0095 816 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6659 0.0072 816 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9901 0.0067 816 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2129 0.0077 816 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4715 0.0071 816 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1806 0.0091 816 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9758 0.0033 816 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0850 0.0083 816 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5565 0.0037 816 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3045 0.0056 816 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1057 0.0025 816 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0145 0.0165 816 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0654 0.0032 816 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0763 0.0394 816 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0373 0.0047 816 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0646 0.0110 816 5.0480
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