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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 65 from efed18a 6e9a83c 58 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 65 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 65 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 65 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (57 runs, generated 2026-08-08T05:40:42Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9367 0.0056 456 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5506 0.0109 456 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3130 0.0054 456 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9650 0.0210 456 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7198 0.0062 456 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1336 0.0104 456 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4740 0.0111 456 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4546 0.0089 456 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7569 0.0129 456 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6513 0.0096 456 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9938 0.0086 456 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2247 0.0102 456 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4819 0.0098 456 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1871 0.0132 456 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9731 0.0049 456 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0853 0.0115 456 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5599 0.0051 456 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3003 0.0072 456 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1064 0.0037 456 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0201 0.0214 456 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0651 0.0041 456 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0676 0.0495 456 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0341 0.0066 456 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0732 0.0155 456 5.0480
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