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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 36 from efed18a 68ab123 30 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 36 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 36 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 36 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (29 runs, generated 2026-08-04T20:32:50Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9403 0.0073 232 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5405 0.0137 232 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3199 0.0080 232 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9817 0.0355 232 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7178 0.0090 232 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1399 0.0143 232 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4715 0.0163 232 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4513 0.0108 232 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7452 0.0188 232 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6462 0.0129 232 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 1.0066 0.0115 232 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2158 0.0130 232 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4757 0.0134 232 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.2010 0.0212 232 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9732 0.0077 232 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0863 0.0165 232 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5612 0.0080 232 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2971 0.0097 232 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1052 0.0034 232 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0022 0.0259 232 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0619 0.0053 232 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0203 0.0527 232 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0359 0.0091 232 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0619 0.0172 232 5.0480
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