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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 183 from efed18a 62f96e6 171 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 183 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 183 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 183 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (170 runs, generated 2026-08-18T13:45:29Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9337 0.0033 1360 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5507 0.0070 1360 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3141 0.0031 1360 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9831 0.0171 1360 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7256 0.0040 1360 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1311 0.0052 1360 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4802 0.0064 1360 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4443 0.0057 1360 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7585 0.0073 1360 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6677 0.0056 1360 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9909 0.0052 1360 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2088 0.0057 1360 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4822 0.0057 1360 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1734 0.0065 1360 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9741 0.0026 1360 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0891 0.0066 1360 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5565 0.0029 1360 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3115 0.0049 1360 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1059 0.0018 1360 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0281 0.0156 1360 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0639 0.0030 1360 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0413 0.0278 1360 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0440 0.0039 1360 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0427 0.0075 1360 5.0480
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