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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 137 from efed18a 5de1b54 125 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 137 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 137 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 137 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (124 runs, generated 2026-08-14T17:39:04Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9321 0.0040 992 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5505 0.0086 992 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3102 0.0036 992 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9868 0.0199 992 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7242 0.0044 992 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1297 0.0062 992 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4774 0.0074 992 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4376 0.0061 992 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7632 0.0085 992 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6673 0.0066 992 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9922 0.0060 992 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2110 0.0069 992 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4800 0.0067 992 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1772 0.0080 992 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9760 0.0031 992 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0892 0.0078 992 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5574 0.0034 992 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3100 0.0054 992 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1056 0.0021 992 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0185 0.0159 992 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0680 0.0038 992 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0552 0.0340 992 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0373 0.0042 992 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0531 0.0093 992 5.0480
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