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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 175 from efed18a 57fda91 163 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 175 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 175 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 175 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (162 runs, generated 2026-08-17T21:15:31Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9347 0.0034 1296 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5514 0.0073 1296 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3132 0.0032 1296 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9851 0.0178 1296 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7273 0.0041 1296 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1302 0.0052 1296 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4793 0.0065 1296 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4452 0.0058 1296 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7595 0.0074 1296 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6667 0.0058 1296 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9917 0.0053 1296 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2087 0.0059 1296 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4813 0.0058 1296 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1730 0.0066 1296 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9741 0.0026 1296 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0879 0.0067 1296 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5562 0.0030 1296 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3115 0.0051 1296 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1061 0.0018 1296 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0232 0.0161 1296 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0640 0.0031 1296 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0468 0.0288 1296 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0423 0.0040 1296 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0454 0.0077 1296 5.0480
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