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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 107 from efed18a 574c33f 95 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 107 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 107 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 107 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (94 runs, generated 2026-08-11T23:37:35Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9322 0.0045 752 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5398 0.0079 752 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3108 0.0043 752 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9736 0.0192 752 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7224 0.0048 752 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1333 0.0075 752 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4771 0.0085 752 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4446 0.0067 752 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7635 0.0098 752 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6641 0.0075 752 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9879 0.0071 752 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2147 0.0081 752 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4715 0.0074 752 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1836 0.0096 752 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9750 0.0036 752 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0855 0.0087 752 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5552 0.0038 752 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3025 0.0053 752 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1060 0.0026 752 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0183 0.0172 752 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0663 0.0034 752 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0649 0.0369 752 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0379 0.0050 752 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0625 0.0109 752 5.0480
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