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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 92 from efed18a 538c28c 80 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 92 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 92 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 92 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (79 runs, generated 2026-08-10T17:54:41Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9330 0.0049 632 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5442 0.0087 632 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3106 0.0047 632 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9623 0.0167 632 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7211 0.0052 632 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1363 0.0086 632 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4739 0.0094 632 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4468 0.0074 632 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7619 0.0109 632 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6561 0.0083 632 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9887 0.0077 632 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2232 0.0085 632 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4800 0.0083 632 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1883 0.0111 632 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9735 0.0040 632 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0821 0.0093 632 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5567 0.0042 632 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3019 0.0060 632 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1071 0.0029 632 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0295 0.0193 632 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0659 0.0037 632 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0836 0.0419 632 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0377 0.0055 632 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0705 0.0125 632 5.0480
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