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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 100 from efed18a 456e03c 88 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 100 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 100 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 100 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (87 runs, generated 2026-08-11T09:53:00Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9321 0.0048 696 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5421 0.0084 696 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3110 0.0044 696 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9803 0.0205 696 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7205 0.0049 696 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1337 0.0080 696 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4751 0.0089 696 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4454 0.0070 696 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7600 0.0103 696 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6614 0.0078 696 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9891 0.0073 696 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2175 0.0082 696 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4767 0.0078 696 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1864 0.0103 696 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9743 0.0038 696 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0878 0.0092 696 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5556 0.0039 696 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3015 0.0056 696 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1057 0.0027 696 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0195 0.0180 696 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0648 0.0035 696 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0781 0.0391 696 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0391 0.0052 696 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0658 0.0116 696 5.0480
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