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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 138 from efed18a 42fafbf 126 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 138 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 138 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 138 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (125 runs, generated 2026-08-14T20:01:06Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9323 0.0039 1000 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5502 0.0087 1000 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3104 0.0036 1000 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9864 0.0198 1000 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7244 0.0043 1000 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1293 0.0061 1000 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4786 0.0074 1000 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4382 0.0061 1000 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7632 0.0085 1000 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6671 0.0065 1000 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9914 0.0060 1000 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2116 0.0069 1000 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4796 0.0067 1000 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1765 0.0080 1000 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9758 0.0030 1000 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0886 0.0077 1000 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5572 0.0034 1000 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3101 0.0053 1000 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1056 0.0021 1000 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0177 0.0158 1000 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0679 0.0038 1000 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0520 0.0338 1000 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0381 0.0042 1000 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0520 0.0093 1000 5.0480
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