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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 134 from efed18a 3c044e4 122 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 134 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 134 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 134 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (121 runs, generated 2026-08-14T11:50:41Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9317 0.0040 968 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5517 0.0088 968 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3099 0.0037 968 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9880 0.0203 968 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7250 0.0044 968 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1300 0.0063 968 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4765 0.0075 968 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4396 0.0061 968 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7626 0.0086 968 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6686 0.0067 968 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9910 0.0061 968 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2128 0.0069 968 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4787 0.0067 968 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1784 0.0082 968 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9754 0.0031 968 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0880 0.0075 968 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5579 0.0034 968 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3092 0.0054 968 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1059 0.0022 968 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0226 0.0162 968 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0661 0.0029 968 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0575 0.0346 968 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0370 0.0043 968 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0551 0.0095 968 5.0480
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