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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 80 from efed18a 3bb0bff 73 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 80 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 80 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 80 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (72 runs, generated 2026-08-09T14:06:33Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9319 0.0052 576 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5471 0.0093 576 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3136 0.0048 576 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9597 0.0180 576 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7203 0.0055 576 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1344 0.0091 576 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4777 0.0097 576 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4476 0.0078 576 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7561 0.0114 576 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6559 0.0088 576 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9865 0.0081 576 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2257 0.0087 576 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4783 0.0087 576 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1838 0.0111 576 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9728 0.0043 576 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0839 0.0099 576 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5565 0.0045 576 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3027 0.0061 576 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1076 0.0031 576 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0359 0.0207 576 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0663 0.0040 576 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0746 0.0440 576 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0389 0.0058 576 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0715 0.0133 576 5.0480
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