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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 164 from efed18a 34a98ff 152 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 164 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 164 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 164 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (151 runs, generated 2026-08-16T23:08:36Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9338 0.0035 1208 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5522 0.0077 1208 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3127 0.0032 1208 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9858 0.0186 1208 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7254 0.0042 1208 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1297 0.0054 1208 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4794 0.0067 1208 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4419 0.0057 1208 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7587 0.0077 1208 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6676 0.0061 1208 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9926 0.0054 1208 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2097 0.0061 1208 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4793 0.0060 1208 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1744 0.0069 1208 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9744 0.0027 1208 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0874 0.0070 1208 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5560 0.0030 1208 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3095 0.0048 1208 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1054 0.0019 1208 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0190 0.0167 1208 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0657 0.0033 1208 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0416 0.0296 1208 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0404 0.0041 1208 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0470 0.0081 1208 5.0480
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