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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 143 from efed18a 3339709 131 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 143 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 143 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 143 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (130 runs, generated 2026-08-15T05:22:14Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9320 0.0039 1040 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5501 0.0085 1040 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3109 0.0035 1040 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9838 0.0191 1040 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7253 0.0043 1040 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1296 0.0060 1040 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4795 0.0073 1040 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4411 0.0061 1040 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7621 0.0083 1040 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6674 0.0066 1040 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9930 0.0058 1040 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2089 0.0068 1040 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4824 0.0066 1040 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1754 0.0077 1040 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9759 0.0030 1040 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0893 0.0076 1040 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5563 0.0033 1040 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3090 0.0052 1040 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1053 0.0020 1040 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0148 0.0153 1040 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0672 0.0037 1040 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0475 0.0329 1040 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0389 0.0043 1040 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0501 0.0090 1040 5.0480
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