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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 168 from efed18a 30381eb 156 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 168 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 168 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 168 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (155 runs, generated 2026-08-17T08:39:15Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9338 0.0035 1240 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5529 0.0075 1240 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3133 0.0033 1240 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9845 0.0182 1240 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7263 0.0042 1240 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1298 0.0054 1240 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4809 0.0067 1240 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4442 0.0060 1240 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7588 0.0076 1240 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6672 0.0060 1240 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9927 0.0054 1240 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2087 0.0060 1240 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4816 0.0060 1240 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1742 0.0068 1240 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9747 0.0027 1240 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0890 0.0069 1240 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5559 0.0030 1240 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3082 0.0047 1240 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1054 0.0019 1240 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0215 0.0164 1240 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0652 0.0032 1240 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0417 0.0292 1240 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0411 0.0041 1240 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0464 0.0079 1240 5.0480
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