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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 171 from efed18a 2efbd11 159 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 171 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 171 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 171 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (158 runs, generated 2026-08-17T13:33:10Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9339 0.0034 1264 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5521 0.0074 1264 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3128 0.0032 1264 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9838 0.0179 1264 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7269 0.0042 1264 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1301 0.0053 1264 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4800 0.0066 1264 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4453 0.0059 1264 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7572 0.0075 1264 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6671 0.0059 1264 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9928 0.0053 1264 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2094 0.0060 1264 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4815 0.0059 1264 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1734 0.0067 1264 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9749 0.0027 1264 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0883 0.0068 1264 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5558 0.0029 1264 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3102 0.0051 1264 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1057 0.0018 1264 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0199 0.0162 1264 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0644 0.0032 1264 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0419 0.0288 1264 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0430 0.0041 1264 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0459 0.0078 1264 5.0480
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