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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 96 from efed18a 2e74434 84 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 96 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 96 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 96 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (83 runs, generated 2026-08-11T00:18:43Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9326 0.0048 664 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5450 0.0086 664 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3098 0.0045 664 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9702 0.0203 664 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7206 0.0051 664 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1363 0.0083 664 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4743 0.0091 664 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4443 0.0072 664 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7609 0.0106 664 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6580 0.0080 664 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9878 0.0075 664 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2188 0.0083 664 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4799 0.0081 664 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1872 0.0106 664 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9734 0.0039 664 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0841 0.0090 664 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5566 0.0041 664 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3005 0.0058 664 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1065 0.0028 664 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0212 0.0186 664 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0657 0.0036 664 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0818 0.0403 664 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0390 0.0054 664 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0672 0.0120 664 5.0480
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