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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 195 from efed18a 2e52e72 179 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 195 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 195 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 195 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (178 runs, generated 2026-08-19T13:42:23Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9326 0.0033 1424 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5513 0.0068 1424 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3143 0.0030 1424 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9852 0.0169 1424 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7236 0.0039 1424 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1318 0.0050 1424 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4791 0.0062 1424 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4430 0.0055 1424 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7578 0.0071 1424 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6675 0.0055 1424 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9922 0.0051 1424 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2087 0.0055 1424 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4820 0.0056 1424 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1731 0.0063 1424 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9746 0.0025 1424 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0873 0.0064 1424 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5573 0.0028 1424 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3115 0.0047 1424 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1061 0.0017 1424 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0252 0.0152 1424 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0639 0.0029 1424 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0431 0.0270 1424 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0439 0.0038 1424 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0419 0.0073 1424 5.0480
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