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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 111 from efed18a 2e40fe0 99 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 111 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 111 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 111 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (98 runs, generated 2026-08-12T09:49:54Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9312 0.0044 784 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5417 0.0078 784 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3095 0.0042 784 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9719 0.0187 784 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7229 0.0048 784 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1335 0.0073 784 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4769 0.0084 784 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4464 0.0067 784 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7636 0.0096 784 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6653 0.0072 784 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9881 0.0069 784 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2137 0.0079 784 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4713 0.0073 784 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1826 0.0093 784 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9753 0.0034 784 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0872 0.0085 784 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5555 0.0037 784 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3029 0.0054 784 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1062 0.0025 784 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0170 0.0170 784 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0658 0.0033 784 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0807 0.0405 784 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0373 0.0049 784 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0622 0.0106 784 5.0480
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