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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 26 from efed18a 24cf1a1 20 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 26 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 26 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 26 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (19 runs, generated 2026-08-03T16:48:49Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9416 0.0093 152 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5467 0.0189 152 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3237 0.0102 152 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9493 0.0296 152 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7148 0.0106 152 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1476 0.0196 152 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4605 0.0197 152 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4527 0.0130 152 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7251 0.0233 152 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6381 0.0168 152 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 1.0194 0.0124 152 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2309 0.0158 152 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4856 0.0167 152 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.2071 0.0267 152 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9739 0.0103 152 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0758 0.0164 152 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5593 0.0095 152 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2962 0.0116 152 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1037 0.0042 152 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 5.9850 0.0298 152 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0618 0.0066 152 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 6.9753 0.0616 152 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0395 0.0126 152 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0599 0.0217 152 5.0480
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