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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 127 from efed18a 1d2b1ca 115 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 127 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 127 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 127 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (114 runs, generated 2026-08-13T19:45:13Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9321 0.0041 912 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5440 0.0075 912 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3102 0.0038 912 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9751 0.0197 912 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7252 0.0045 912 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1309 0.0065 912 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4755 0.0077 912 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4415 0.0062 912 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7630 0.0089 912 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6666 0.0068 912 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9939 0.0062 912 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2132 0.0072 912 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4772 0.0069 912 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1788 0.0085 912 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9750 0.0031 912 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0883 0.0079 912 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5575 0.0035 912 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3074 0.0053 912 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1057 0.0023 912 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0157 0.0156 912 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0660 0.0030 912 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0677 0.0360 912 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0378 0.0044 912 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0576 0.0100 912 5.0480
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