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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 194 from efed18a 1b40ab6 178 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 194 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 194 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 194 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (177 runs, generated 2026-08-19T11:15:22Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9328 0.0033 1416 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5510 0.0068 1416 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3143 0.0030 1416 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9858 0.0170 1416 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7235 0.0039 1416 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1312 0.0051 1416 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4783 0.0062 1416 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4429 0.0055 1416 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7579 0.0071 1416 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6677 0.0055 1416 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9922 0.0051 1416 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2091 0.0056 1416 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4821 0.0056 1416 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1735 0.0063 1416 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9744 0.0025 1416 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0873 0.0064 1416 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5571 0.0028 1416 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3117 0.0048 1416 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1061 0.0018 1416 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0254 0.0153 1416 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0637 0.0029 1416 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0431 0.0271 1416 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0439 0.0039 1416 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0427 0.0073 1416 5.0480
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