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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 10 from efed18a 167fc38 4 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 10 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 10 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 10 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (3 runs, generated 2026-08-01T21:48:05Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9644 0.0173 24 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5427 0.0294 24 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3438 0.0389 24 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9625 0.0974 24 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7323 0.0244 24 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1653 0.0829 24 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.5273 0.0496 24 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4698 0.0311 24 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7422 0.0586 24 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6034 0.0419 24 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9987 0.0470 24 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2412 0.0315 24 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4731 0.0368 24 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.2196 0.0909 24 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9590 0.0183 24 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0630 0.0373 24 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5839 0.0326 24 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2781 0.0203 24 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.0874 0.0086 24 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 5.9139 0.0540 24 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0509 0.0151 24 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0523 0.1397 24 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0482 0.0382 24 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0918 0.0612 24 5.0480
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