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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 71 from efed18a 122e3a6 64 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 71 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 71 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 71 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (63 runs, generated 2026-08-08T17:30:20Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9355 0.0052 504 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5458 0.0102 504 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3121 0.0052 504 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9624 0.0194 504 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7206 0.0060 504 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1370 0.0102 504 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4728 0.0104 504 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4512 0.0084 504 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7555 0.0123 504 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6568 0.0090 504 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9874 0.0084 504 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2252 0.0097 504 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4782 0.0093 504 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1882 0.0123 504 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9738 0.0046 504 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0838 0.0106 504 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5593 0.0049 504 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3020 0.0068 504 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1061 0.0035 504 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0348 0.0228 504 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0683 0.0044 504 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0871 0.0484 504 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0382 0.0062 504 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0701 0.0143 504 5.0480
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