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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 70 from efed18a 11a3b7f 63 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 70 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 70 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 70 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (62 runs, generated 2026-08-08T15:09:46Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9346 0.0053 496 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5454 0.0103 496 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3123 0.0053 496 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9621 0.0196 496 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7218 0.0060 496 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1379 0.0103 496 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4728 0.0104 496 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4521 0.0084 496 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7556 0.0124 496 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6548 0.0090 496 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9864 0.0085 496 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2241 0.0096 496 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4774 0.0094 496 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1879 0.0125 496 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9737 0.0046 496 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0840 0.0107 496 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5601 0.0049 496 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3016 0.0069 496 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1057 0.0035 496 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0341 0.0232 496 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0668 0.0042 496 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0807 0.0487 496 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0382 0.0063 496 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0701 0.0145 496 5.0480
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