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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 129 from efed18a 0a62dbf 117 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 129 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 129 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 129 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (116 runs, generated 2026-08-14T00:52:30Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9325 0.0041 928 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5490 0.0090 928 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3098 0.0038 928 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9740 0.0194 928 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7250 0.0045 928 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1315 0.0065 928 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4767 0.0076 928 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4388 0.0063 928 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7619 0.0088 928 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6674 0.0067 928 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9921 0.0062 928 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2130 0.0071 928 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4779 0.0069 928 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1770 0.0083 928 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9750 0.0031 928 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0888 0.0078 928 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5575 0.0035 928 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3075 0.0053 928 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1060 0.0022 928 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0211 0.0157 928 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0665 0.0030 928 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0670 0.0356 928 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0366 0.0044 928 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0569 0.0099 928 5.0480
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