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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 157 from efed18a 0813ac1 145 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 157 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 157 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 157 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (144 runs, generated 2026-08-16T09:22:47Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9332 0.0037 1152 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5499 0.0079 1152 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3124 0.0033 1152 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9794 0.0177 1152 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7268 0.0043 1152 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1296 0.0056 1152 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4780 0.0068 1152 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4418 0.0058 1152 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7605 0.0078 1152 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6655 0.0062 1152 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9929 0.0056 1152 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2085 0.0063 1152 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4806 0.0062 1152 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1764 0.0072 1152 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9747 0.0028 1152 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0888 0.0072 1152 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5570 0.0031 1152 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3105 0.0050 1152 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1057 0.0019 1152 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0077 0.0143 1152 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0671 0.0034 1152 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0498 0.0307 1152 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0387 0.0041 1152 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0489 0.0084 1152 5.0480
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