estimates: run 180 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (166 runs, generated 2026-08-18T05:21:13Z)
24+## Current state (167 runs, generated 2026-08-18T07:48:36Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9347 | 0.0033 | 1328 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5519 | 0.0071 | 1328 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3135 | 0.0031 | 1328 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9843 | 0.0175 | 1328 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7260 | 0.0041 | 1328 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1294 | 0.0051 | 1328 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4786 | 0.0064 | 1328 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4445 | 0.0058 | 1328 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7584 | 0.0074 | 1328 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6670 | 0.0057 | 1328 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9913 | 0.0052 | 1328 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2094 | 0.0058 | 1328 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4831 | 0.0058 | 1328 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1723 | 0.0064 | 1328 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9737 | 0.0026 | 1328 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0887 | 0.0067 | 1328 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5567 | 0.0029 | 1328 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3112 | 0.0050 | 1328 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1055 | 0.0018 | 1328 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0250 | 0.0158 | 1328 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0637 | 0.0031 | 1328 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0436 | 0.0283 | 1328 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0429 | 0.0040 | 1328 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0421 | 0.0075 | 1328 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9349 | 0.0033 | 1336 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5522 | 0.0071 | 1336 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3136 | 0.0031 | 1336 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9840 | 0.0174 | 1336 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7259 | 0.0041 | 1336 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1303 | 0.0053 | 1336 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4780 | 0.0064 | 1336 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4446 | 0.0057 | 1336 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7585 | 0.0074 | 1336 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6669 | 0.0057 | 1336 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9915 | 0.0052 | 1336 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2095 | 0.0057 | 1336 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4824 | 0.0058 | 1336 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1716 | 0.0064 | 1336 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9740 | 0.0026 | 1336 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0892 | 0.0066 | 1336 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5564 | 0.0029 | 1336 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3117 | 0.0050 | 1336 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1055 | 0.0018 | 1336 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0271 | 0.0158 | 1336 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0635 | 0.0031 | 1336 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0423 | 0.0281 | 1336 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0429 | 0.0039 | 1336 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0428 | 0.0076 | 1336 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T05:08:46Z",
9- "mean": 0.9347096129046019,
10- "n_pasts": 1328,
11- "n_runs": 166,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:26:51Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9348724614220146,
10+ "n_pasts": 1336,
11+ "n_runs": 167,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.12202358282269772,
22- "se": 0.0033484570674560264
21+ "sd": 0.122014380295783,
22+ "se": 0.003338164923892281
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T05:18:40Z",
30- "mean": 2.5518613632539973,
31- "n_pasts": 1328,
32- "n_runs": 166,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:42:57Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5521680356265977,
31+ "n_pasts": 1336,
32+ "n_runs": 167,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.25936808580346565,
43- "se": 0.00711733650078998
42+ "sd": 0.2588615607015934,
43+ "se": 0.0070821372036910385
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T05:10:37Z",
51- "mean": 1.3134925452636788,
52- "n_pasts": 1328,
53- "n_runs": 166,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:28:58Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3136398794924893,
52+ "n_pasts": 1336,
53+ "n_runs": 167,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.11382199671179509,
64- "se": 0.003123396809904789
63+ "sd": 0.11363038626970151,
64+ "se": 0.003108789052686427
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T05:21:13Z",
72- "mean": 2.9842615259468217,
73- "n_pasts": 1328,
74- "n_runs": 166,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:48:36Z",
72+ "mean": 2.9840101295111205,
73+ "n_pasts": 1336,
74+ "n_runs": 167,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.6362171489578123,
85- "se": 0.017458476137026214
84+ "sd": 0.6350985559175581,
85+ "se": 0.017375523421413516
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T05:11:59Z",
93- "mean": 1.7259967891202368,
94- "n_pasts": 1328,
95- "n_runs": 166,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:30:39Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7259463121254957,
94+ "n_pasts": 1336,
95+ "n_runs": 167,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.14877985214696313,
106- "se": 0.004082677593071737
105+ "sd": 0.14870890378807194,
106+ "se": 0.004068494592952258
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T05:13:57Z",
114- "mean": 2.129407719991413,
115- "n_pasts": 1328,
116- "n_runs": 166,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:38:47Z",
114+ "mean": 2.130275884950965,
115+ "n_pasts": 1336,
116+ "n_runs": 167,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.18670911339806934,
127- "se": 0.005123496916367565
126+ "sd": 0.1927241069800795,
127+ "se": 0.005272696975141707
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T04:59:15Z",
135- "mean": 0.4786156244507408,
136- "n_pasts": 1328,
137- "n_runs": 166,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:13:10Z",
135+ "mean": 0.4779638099952445,
136+ "n_pasts": 1336,
137+ "n_runs": 167,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.23394980521137845,
147- "se": 0.006419831810939789
146+ "sd": 0.23430687886982676,
147+ "se": 0.0064103509977583
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T05:05:07Z",
155- "mean": 1.4444887742907775,
156- "n_pasts": 1328,
157- "n_runs": 166,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:23:30Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4445997424592685,
156+ "n_pasts": 1336,
157+ "n_runs": 167,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.21014155311733368,
167- "se": 0.005766508017752085
166+ "sd": 0.20975367357847646,
167+ "se": 0.005738605188174045
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T05:00:20Z",
175- "mean": 0.7583510067287287,
176- "n_pasts": 1328,
177- "n_runs": 166,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:14:14Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7584995817171272,
176+ "n_pasts": 1336,
177+ "n_runs": 167,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.26876556627865095,
187- "se": 0.007375213373321548
186+ "sd": 0.26873007219409134,
187+ "se": 0.007352127665761378
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T05:07:33Z",
195- "mean": 1.666995471440588,
196- "n_pasts": 1328,
197- "n_runs": 166,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:25:27Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6668685089251734,
196+ "n_pasts": 1336,
197+ "n_runs": 167,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.20897709349840168,
207- "se": 0.005734554005662098
206+ "sd": 0.20848744615225934,
207+ "se": 0.005703962747097659
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T05:01:17Z",
215- "mean": 0.9912959204244417,
216- "n_pasts": 1328,
217- "n_runs": 166,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:15:11Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9914681782380815,
216+ "n_pasts": 1336,
217+ "n_runs": 167,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.18995245944219621,
227- "se": 0.005212497785973584
226+ "sd": 0.18971030355121266,
227+ "se": 0.0051902429818553334
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T05:02:16Z",
235- "mean": 1.209423500764145,
236- "n_pasts": 1328,
237- "n_runs": 166,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:16:32Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2094603156456758,
236+ "n_pasts": 1336,
237+ "n_runs": 167,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.21012151765938963,
247- "se": 0.005765958223448389
246+ "sd": 0.20982246368721,
247+ "se": 0.0057404872018148
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T04:57:38Z",
255- "mean": 0.4830637967960399,
256- "n_pasts": 1328,
257- "n_runs": 166,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:11:13Z",
255+ "mean": 0.4823975498338757,
256+ "n_pasts": 1336,
257+ "n_runs": 167,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.21076950971033487,
265- "se": 0.00578373981543619
264+ "sd": 0.21032838586821884,
265+ "se": 0.0057543286168575914
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T04:58:05Z",
273- "mean": 3.1722644741288173,
274- "n_pasts": 1328,
275- "n_runs": 166,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:11:39Z",
273+ "mean": 3.171635122517555,
274+ "n_pasts": 1336,
275+ "n_runs": 167,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.23456447942916456,
283- "se": 0.0064366991261022985
282+ "sd": 0.23407136874114295,
283+ "se": 0.006403907727310277
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T04:57:45Z",
291- "mean": 0.9737490695326999,
292- "n_pasts": 1328,
293- "n_runs": 166,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:11:19Z",
291+ "mean": 0.973964237019942,
292+ "n_pasts": 1336,
293+ "n_runs": 167,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.09441060201842595,
301- "se": 0.0025907274664334224
300+ "sd": 0.09437829452364477,
301+ "se": 0.0025820752569645643
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T04:58:13Z",
309- "mean": 4.088688368369709,
310- "n_pasts": 1328,
311- "n_runs": 166,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:11:47Z",
309+ "mean": 4.089202722912052,
310+ "n_pasts": 1336,
311+ "n_runs": 167,
312312 "params": {
313313 "filter": "moving-average",
314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.242893019428959,
319- "se": 0.006665243133570291
318+ "sd": 0.24293431086279726,
319+ "se": 0.006646387035415376
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T04:57:54Z",
327- "mean": 1.5566763897908775,
328- "n_pasts": 1328,
329- "n_runs": 166,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:11:25Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5563657388586596,
328+ "n_pasts": 1336,
329+ "n_runs": 167,
330330 "params": {
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332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.10681832932730821,
337- "se": 0.002931208717986756
336+ "sd": 0.10676368877107588,
337+ "se": 0.0029209245675550525
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T04:57:58Z",
345- "mean": 2.3112366184911863,
346- "n_pasts": 1328,
347- "n_runs": 166,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:11:35Z",
345+ "mean": 2.311699566459458,
346+ "n_pasts": 1336,
347+ "n_runs": 167,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.1818899324538079,
355- "se": 0.004991253458841747
354+ "sd": 0.18180960458028014,
355+ "se": 0.004974089475071426
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-18T04:57:25Z",
363- "mean": 2.1055045771355143,
364- "n_pasts": 1328,
365- "n_runs": 166,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-18T07:11:04Z",
363+ "mean": 2.105474440084822,
364+ "n_pasts": 1336,
365+ "n_runs": 167,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.06607622937677037,
372- "se": 0.0018132021051125592
371+ "sd": 0.06592604699170188,
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450- "n_runs": 166,
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451451 "params": {
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454454 },
455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.27496613862134844,
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456+ "sd": 0.2765058621005626,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-18T05:21:13Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-18T07:48:36Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 166
469+ "total_runs": 167
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -3982,3 +3982,27 @@
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