estimates: run 81 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (72 runs, generated 2026-08-09T14:06:33Z)
24+## Current state (73 runs, generated 2026-08-09T15:33:10Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9319 | 0.0052 | 576 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5471 | 0.0093 | 576 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3136 | 0.0048 | 576 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9597 | 0.0180 | 576 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7203 | 0.0055 | 576 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1344 | 0.0091 | 576 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4777 | 0.0097 | 576 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4476 | 0.0078 | 576 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7561 | 0.0114 | 576 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6559 | 0.0088 | 576 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9865 | 0.0081 | 576 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2257 | 0.0087 | 576 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4783 | 0.0087 | 576 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1838 | 0.0111 | 576 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9728 | 0.0043 | 576 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0839 | 0.0099 | 576 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5565 | 0.0045 | 576 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3027 | 0.0061 | 576 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1076 | 0.0031 | 576 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0359 | 0.0207 | 576 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0663 | 0.0040 | 576 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0746 | 0.0440 | 576 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0389 | 0.0058 | 576 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0715 | 0.0133 | 576 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9311 | 0.0052 | 584 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5479 | 0.0093 | 584 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3134 | 0.0047 | 584 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9595 | 0.0177 | 584 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7205 | 0.0055 | 584 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1343 | 0.0090 | 584 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4770 | 0.0097 | 584 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4485 | 0.0077 | 584 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7565 | 0.0113 | 584 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6567 | 0.0088 | 584 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9870 | 0.0080 | 584 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2245 | 0.0087 | 584 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4771 | 0.0086 | 584 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1839 | 0.0109 | 584 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9733 | 0.0042 | 584 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0835 | 0.0098 | 584 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5569 | 0.0045 | 584 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3038 | 0.0062 | 584 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1082 | 0.0031 | 584 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0335 | 0.0205 | 584 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0665 | 0.0039 | 584 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0761 | 0.0436 | 584 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0388 | 0.0058 | 584 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0708 | 0.0131 | 584 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:40:48Z",
9- "mean": 0.9318651492222697,
10- "n_pasts": 576,
11- "n_runs": 72,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T15:20:34Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9310933548243459,
10+ "n_pasts": 584,
11+ "n_runs": 73,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.12463436814517888,
22- "se": 0.005193098672715787
21+ "sd": 0.12560649799191914,
22+ "se": 0.00519763386924169
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:59:18Z",
30- "mean": 2.547060125850861,
31- "n_pasts": 576,
32- "n_runs": 72,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T15:29:58Z",
30+ "mean": 2.547880703963147,
31+ "n_pasts": 584,
32+ "n_runs": 73,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.2241237277027023,
43- "se": 0.009338488654279263
42+ "sd": 0.22369867292041182,
43+ "se": 0.009256716949073394
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:42:26Z",
51- "mean": 1.3135792344473762,
52- "n_pasts": 576,
53- "n_runs": 72,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T15:21:34Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3134213467316735,
52+ "n_pasts": 584,
53+ "n_runs": 73,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.1154001848832034,
64- "se": 0.004808341036800142
63+ "sd": 0.11472692375790951,
64+ "se": 0.00474743388416404
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T14:06:33Z",
72- "mean": 2.959706128171896,
73- "n_pasts": 576,
74- "n_runs": 72,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T15:33:10Z",
72+ "mean": 2.9595268731010878,
73+ "n_pasts": 584,
74+ "n_runs": 73,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.43114675470032393,
85- "se": 0.017964448112513496
84+ "sd": 0.42861787360642906,
85+ "se": 0.017736333807845308
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:44:32Z",
93- "mean": 1.7203207457409033,
94- "n_pasts": 576,
95- "n_runs": 72,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T15:22:23Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7205326930685156,
94+ "n_pasts": 584,
95+ "n_runs": 73,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.1323841478137022,
106- "se": 0.005516006158904258
105+ "sd": 0.13183048356277205,
106+ "se": 0.0054551842246923915
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:55:53Z",
114- "mean": 2.1343537216015727,
115- "n_pasts": 576,
116- "n_runs": 72,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T15:24:11Z",
114+ "mean": 2.134346709472431,
115+ "n_pasts": 584,
116+ "n_runs": 73,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.21946458639179228,
127- "se": 0.009144357766324678
126+ "sd": 0.21809322261433078,
127+ "se": 0.009024761764994364
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:29:07Z",
135- "mean": 0.4776605773837617,
136- "n_pasts": 576,
137- "n_runs": 72,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T14:59:28Z",
135+ "mean": 0.47704423214741093,
136+ "n_pasts": 584,
137+ "n_runs": 73,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.23287527752962373,
147- "se": 0.009703136563734322
146+ "sd": 0.23396910842756805,
147+ "se": 0.009681710594285062
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:34:28Z",
155- "mean": 1.4476496496561029,
156- "n_pasts": 576,
157- "n_runs": 72,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T15:15:32Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4485345514013181,
156+ "n_pasts": 584,
157+ "n_runs": 73,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.18666739404147514,
167- "se": 0.007777808085061464
166+ "sd": 0.18676865189814662,
167+ "se": 0.007728541805861599
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:30:14Z",
175- "mean": 0.7560878999409775,
176- "n_pasts": 576,
177- "n_runs": 72,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T15:00:54Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7564699459890767,
176+ "n_pasts": 584,
177+ "n_runs": 73,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2742773377597596,
187- "se": 0.01142822240665665
186+ "sd": 0.2735058700177646,
187+ "se": 0.01131775342970079
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:39:33Z",
195- "mean": 1.6558759982953133,
196- "n_pasts": 576,
197- "n_runs": 72,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T15:19:42Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6566636787331135,
196+ "n_pasts": 584,
197+ "n_runs": 73,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.21235097036014075,
207- "se": 0.008847957098339198
206+ "sd": 0.21334802812867826,
207+ "se": 0.008828404220049888
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:31:08Z",
215- "mean": 0.9865307758286223,
216- "n_pasts": 576,
217- "n_runs": 72,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T15:01:44Z",
215+ "mean": 0.98703112892299,
216+ "n_pasts": 584,
217+ "n_runs": 73,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.19363827415024223,
227- "se": 0.00806826142292676
226+ "sd": 0.19266740406295454,
227+ "se": 0.00797263390721165
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:32:12Z",
235- "mean": 1.225737874495855,
236- "n_pasts": 576,
237- "n_runs": 72,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T15:03:00Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2244547933967542,
236+ "n_pasts": 584,
237+ "n_runs": 73,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.20970273018218363,
247- "se": 0.008737613757590985
246+ "sd": 0.21042805385347216,
247+ "se": 0.00870757482481349
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:27:11Z",
255- "mean": 0.47826659831950036,
256- "n_pasts": 576,
257- "n_runs": 72,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T14:57:40Z",
255+ "mean": 0.47709569147034975,
256+ "n_pasts": 584,
257+ "n_runs": 73,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.20793902552062976,
265- "se": 0.008664126063359574
264+ "sd": 0.20686640823672725,
265+ "se": 0.008560192880536843
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:27:37Z",
273- "mean": 3.1838078308590605,
274- "n_pasts": 576,
275- "n_runs": 72,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T14:58:23Z",
273+ "mean": 3.183908054742432,
274+ "n_pasts": 584,
275+ "n_runs": 73,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.2660721930873988,
283- "se": 0.011086341378641618
282+ "sd": 0.26441834195450314,
283+ "se": 0.010941708842801068
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:27:16Z",
291- "mean": 0.9728389176211684,
292- "n_pasts": 576,
293- "n_runs": 72,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T14:57:48Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9732733607539538,
292+ "n_pasts": 584,
293+ "n_runs": 73,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.10211514565766772,
301- "se": 0.004254797735736155
300+ "sd": 0.10173304381151875,
301+ "se": 0.00420974330619278
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:27:43Z",
309- "mean": 4.083892536421629,
310- "n_pasts": 576,
311- "n_runs": 72,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T14:58:28Z",
309+ "mean": 4.083508504622407,
310+ "n_pasts": 584,
311+ "n_runs": 73,
312312 "params": {
313313 "filter": "moving-average",
314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.23690147276241078,
319- "se": 0.009870894698433783
318+ "sd": 0.23587353810292522,
319+ "se": 0.009760516454972796
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:27:25Z",
327- "mean": 1.5564983624630258,
328- "n_pasts": 576,
329- "n_runs": 72,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T14:58:07Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5569201677869102,
328+ "n_pasts": 584,
329+ "n_runs": 73,
330330 "params": {
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332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.10740734143769302,
337- "se": 0.00447530589323721
336+ "sd": 0.10815069588697451,
337+ "se": 0.0044753076386252
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:27:31Z",
345- "mean": 2.302680682180835,
346- "n_pasts": 576,
347- "n_runs": 72,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T14:58:17Z",
345+ "mean": 2.3038423197487705,
346+ "n_pasts": 584,
347+ "n_runs": 73,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.14713773337747546,
355- "se": 0.006130738890728144
354+ "sd": 0.15008342439898428,
355+ "se": 0.006210496290710386
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T13:27:00Z",
363- "mean": 2.1076139243380014,
364- "n_pasts": 576,
365- "n_runs": 72,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T14:57:29Z",
363+ "mean": 2.108167912379472,
364+ "n_pasts": 584,
365+ "n_runs": 73,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.07556765191298843,
372- "se": 0.0031486521630411848
371+ "sd": 0.07554319949319957,
372+ "se": 0.0031259998372217693
373373 },
374374 {
375375 "L": 1,
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442442 {
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447+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T14:57:32Z",
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455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.3182105295219257,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-09T14:06:33Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-09T15:33:10Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 72
469+ "total_runs": 73
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -1726,3 +1726,27 @@
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