estimates: run 75 from efed18a
3 changed files+207−183
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (66 runs, generated 2026-08-08T23:09:01Z)
24+## Current state (67 runs, generated 2026-08-09T02:57:10Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9333 | 0.0053 | 528 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5455 | 0.0098 | 528 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3116 | 0.0051 | 528 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9570 | 0.0187 | 528 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7212 | 0.0058 | 528 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1357 | 0.0098 | 528 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4754 | 0.0101 | 528 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4508 | 0.0082 | 528 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7601 | 0.0119 | 528 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6601 | 0.0089 | 528 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9887 | 0.0083 | 528 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2237 | 0.0093 | 528 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4762 | 0.0090 | 528 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1871 | 0.0118 | 528 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9728 | 0.0044 | 528 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0842 | 0.0104 | 528 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5585 | 0.0047 | 528 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3028 | 0.0066 | 528 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1072 | 0.0034 | 528 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0335 | 0.0220 | 528 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0676 | 0.0042 | 528 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0842 | 0.0468 | 528 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0382 | 0.0060 | 528 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0735 | 0.0142 | 528 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9343 | 0.0052 | 536 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5448 | 0.0097 | 536 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3113 | 0.0051 | 536 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9591 | 0.0190 | 536 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7202 | 0.0057 | 536 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1345 | 0.0096 | 536 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4754 | 0.0100 | 536 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4492 | 0.0081 | 536 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7589 | 0.0118 | 536 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6581 | 0.0089 | 536 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9875 | 0.0083 | 536 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2232 | 0.0092 | 536 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4776 | 0.0090 | 536 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1878 | 0.0118 | 536 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9728 | 0.0044 | 536 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0846 | 0.0103 | 536 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5586 | 0.0047 | 536 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3022 | 0.0065 | 536 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1072 | 0.0033 | 536 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0345 | 0.0218 | 536 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0673 | 0.0042 | 536 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0846 | 0.0463 | 536 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0380 | 0.0060 | 536 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0735 | 0.0141 | 536 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+158−158View file
@@ -3,12 +3,12 @@
33 {
44 "L": 101,
55 "M": 512,
6- "highres_szego": -4.782567960178533,
6+ "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T23:02:08Z",
9- "mean": 0.9333407908462081,
10- "n_pasts": 528,
11- "n_runs": 66,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:44:18Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9343407222053257,
10+ "n_pasts": 536,
11+ "n_runs": 67,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.12131491993624682,
22- "se": 0.00527955422373875
21+ "sd": 0.12100454001357762,
22+ "se": 0.005226600073486299
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
27- "highres_szego": -0.7825679601785338,
27+ "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T23:07:13Z",
30- "mean": 2.545509677719123,
31- "n_pasts": 528,
32- "n_runs": 66,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:50:37Z",
30+ "mean": 2.544796161367002,
31+ "n_pasts": 536,
32+ "n_runs": 67,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.22472144225792193,
43- "se": 0.009779745477810688
42+ "sd": 0.22346262866237895,
43+ "se": 0.009652115459942072
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
48- "highres_szego": -3.782567960178534,
48+ "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T23:02:37Z",
51- "mean": 1.3116459341648377,
52- "n_pasts": 528,
53- "n_runs": 66,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:45:21Z",
51+ "mean": 1.31128996084837,
52+ "n_pasts": 536,
53+ "n_runs": 67,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.11756302420158317,
64- "se": 0.005116273920018643
63+ "sd": 0.11723327247520637,
64+ "se": 0.005063706125945356
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
69- "highres_szego": 0.21743203982146625,
69+ "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T23:09:01Z",
72- "mean": 2.956964299363186,
73- "n_pasts": 528,
74- "n_runs": 66,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:57:10Z",
72+ "mean": 2.9591305586224443,
73+ "n_pasts": 536,
74+ "n_runs": 67,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.4300572876637705,
85- "se": 0.018715841140793603
84+ "sd": 0.4395652668636275,
85+ "se": 0.018986327751286617
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
90- "highres_szego": -2.782567960178534,
90+ "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T23:04:05Z",
93- "mean": 1.721213223685778,
94- "n_pasts": 528,
95- "n_runs": 66,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:46:26Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7202338791379095,
94+ "n_pasts": 536,
95+ "n_runs": 67,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.1329744372800726,
106- "se": 0.00578696958593575
105+ "sd": 0.13252299199584,
106+ "se": 0.005724121422438874
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111- "highres_szego": -1.7825679601785338,
111+ "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T23:05:13Z",
114- "mean": 2.1356610760983594,
115- "n_pasts": 528,
116- "n_runs": 66,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:47:40Z",
114+ "mean": 2.134518105487475,
115+ "n_pasts": 536,
116+ "n_runs": 67,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.22443348994602533,
127- "se": 0.009767213961940191
126+ "sd": 0.223202312028453,
127+ "se": 0.009640871493906958
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132- "highres_szego": -7.756237076152649,
132+ "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T22:53:40Z",
135- "mean": 0.4754258453031108,
136- "n_pasts": 528,
137- "n_runs": 66,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:35:33Z",
135+ "mean": 0.4754164533625495,
136+ "n_pasts": 536,
137+ "n_runs": 67,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.23244364601381742,
147- "se": 0.01011581125997033
146+ "sd": 0.23239886801041215,
147+ "se": 0.010038102210752254
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152- "highres_szego": -3.7562370761526487,
152+ "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T22:57:48Z",
155- "mean": 1.450799146415526,
156- "n_pasts": 528,
157- "n_runs": 66,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:41:27Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4492329211082422,
156+ "n_pasts": 536,
157+ "n_runs": 67,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.18868125500688473,
167- "se": 0.008211297648594443
166+ "sd": 0.1882968866492778,
167+ "se": 0.008133186750579172
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172- "highres_szego": -6.756237076152649,
172+ "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T22:54:19Z",
175- "mean": 0.7600930236180092,
176- "n_pasts": 528,
177- "n_runs": 66,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:37:01Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7588928322545794,
176+ "n_pasts": 536,
177+ "n_runs": 67,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2732158425493136,
187- "se": 0.011890193360236381
186+ "sd": 0.27345962610309976,
187+ "se": 0.011811656833087608
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192- "highres_szego": -2.7562370761526487,
192+ "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T23:01:10Z",
195- "mean": 1.6600662891930056,
196- "n_pasts": 528,
197- "n_runs": 66,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:43:14Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6580883704853129,
196+ "n_pasts": 536,
197+ "n_runs": 67,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
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207- "se": 0.008911005140976242
206+ "sd": 0.20515834780272513,
207+ "se": 0.008861490945560662
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212- "highres_szego": -5.756237076152649,
212+ "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T22:55:06Z",
215- "mean": 0.9887098493949539,
216- "n_pasts": 528,
217- "n_runs": 66,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:38:10Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9874924203065003,
216+ "n_pasts": 536,
217+ "n_runs": 67,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.19070975487529349,
227- "se": 0.008299576774144201
226+ "sd": 0.1915634674114725,
227+ "se": 0.008274281549582747
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232- "highres_szego": -4.756237076152649,
232+ "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T22:56:25Z",
235- "mean": 1.2236655678024897,
236- "n_pasts": 528,
237- "n_runs": 66,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:40:33Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2232178735033086,
236+ "n_pasts": 536,
237+ "n_runs": 67,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.21482274569932394,
247- "se": 0.00934896000432632
246+ "sd": 0.2136263502022295,
247+ "se": 0.009227252940594614
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T22:52:31Z",
255- "mean": 0.4761613131365509,
256- "n_pasts": 528,
257- "n_runs": 66,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:33:39Z",
255+ "mean": 0.47763376518827366,
256+ "n_pasts": 536,
257+ "n_runs": 67,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.2065526316131451,
265- "se": 0.008989049485674267
264+ "sd": 0.20777134391320815,
265+ "se": 0.00897435518736132
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T22:52:52Z",
273- "mean": 3.187055893690224,
274- "n_pasts": 528,
275- "n_runs": 66,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:34:28Z",
273+ "mean": 3.18783206124893,
274+ "n_pasts": 536,
275+ "n_runs": 67,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
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283- "se": 0.011795131803767324
282+ "sd": 0.2721275121634846,
283+ "se": 0.011754118274502092
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T22:52:35Z",
291- "mean": 0.9728324975069814,
292- "n_pasts": 528,
293- "n_runs": 66,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:33:45Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9727730792142013,
292+ "n_pasts": 536,
293+ "n_runs": 67,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.10126046504030062,
301- "se": 0.004406796098799855
300+ "sd": 0.10210521859810874,
301+ "se": 0.00441027372169944
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T22:52:55Z",
309- "mean": 4.084185890211264,
310- "n_pasts": 528,
311- "n_runs": 66,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:34:35Z",
309+ "mean": 4.084646393894847,
310+ "n_pasts": 536,
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312312 "params": {
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315315 "width": 8
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319+ "se": 0.010274824510697318
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T22:52:39Z",
327- "mean": 1.5584559161809475,
328- "n_pasts": 528,
329- "n_runs": 66,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:34:13Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5585522260170805,
328+ "n_pasts": 536,
329+ "n_runs": 67,
330330 "params": {
331331 "filter": "moving-average",
332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.10779715282905963,
337- "se": 0.004691268920795206
336+ "sd": 0.1090215183145097,
337+ "se": 0.004709012369042246
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T22:52:44Z",
345- "mean": 2.3028074527475804,
346- "n_pasts": 528,
347- "n_runs": 66,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T02:34:18Z",
345+ "mean": 2.30219807467308,
346+ "n_pasts": 536,
347+ "n_runs": 67,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.15071095876554058,
355- "se": 0.006558852607185284
354+ "sd": 0.14989441979783183,
355+ "se": 0.006474452821709221
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-08T22:52:24Z",
363- "mean": 2.10720634679814,
364- "n_pasts": 528,
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442442 {
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450- "n_runs": 66,
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451451 "params": {
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455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.3267485932356873,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-08T23:09:01Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-09T02:57:10Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 66
469+ "total_runs": 67
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -1582,3 +1582,27 @@
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