estimates: run 110 from efed18a
3 changed files+207−183
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (96 runs, generated 2026-08-12T06:41:53Z)
24+## Current state (97 runs, generated 2026-08-12T08:23:57Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9314 | 0.0045 | 768 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5414 | 0.0079 | 768 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3101 | 0.0042 | 768 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9735 | 0.0190 | 768 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7227 | 0.0048 | 768 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1334 | 0.0074 | 768 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4785 | 0.0084 | 768 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4459 | 0.0068 | 768 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7643 | 0.0097 | 768 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6652 | 0.0074 | 768 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9879 | 0.0070 | 768 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2151 | 0.0079 | 768 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4695 | 0.0073 | 768 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1836 | 0.0095 | 768 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9750 | 0.0035 | 768 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0871 | 0.0086 | 768 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5560 | 0.0038 | 768 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3043 | 0.0055 | 768 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1062 | 0.0026 | 768 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0165 | 0.0171 | 768 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0658 | 0.0033 | 768 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0790 | 0.0409 | 768 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0377 | 0.0049 | 768 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0622 | 0.0107 | 768 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9311 | 0.0045 | 776 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5423 | 0.0078 | 776 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3101 | 0.0042 | 776 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9722 | 0.0189 | 776 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7228 | 0.0048 | 776 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1336 | 0.0074 | 776 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4783 | 0.0083 | 776 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4460 | 0.0067 | 776 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7640 | 0.0096 | 776 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6650 | 0.0073 | 776 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9876 | 0.0070 | 776 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2150 | 0.0079 | 776 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4713 | 0.0073 | 776 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1832 | 0.0094 | 776 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9751 | 0.0035 | 776 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0862 | 0.0085 | 776 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5559 | 0.0038 | 776 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3036 | 0.0054 | 776 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1062 | 0.0026 | 776 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0155 | 0.0169 | 776 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0656 | 0.0033 | 776 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0823 | 0.0409 | 776 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0375 | 0.0049 | 776 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0612 | 0.0106 | 776 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+158−158View file
@@ -3,12 +3,12 @@
33 {
44 "L": 101,
55 "M": 512,
6- "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
6+ "highres_szego": -4.782567960178533,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:07:37Z",
9- "mean": 0.931408713796395,
10- "n_pasts": 768,
11- "n_runs": 96,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T08:10:55Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9310998457401443,
10+ "n_pasts": 776,
11+ "n_runs": 97,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.1238608920271282,
22- "se": 0.004469444959620602
21+ "sd": 0.12421044980050605,
22+ "se": 0.0044588952909926155
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
27- "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
27+ "highres_szego": -0.7825679601785338,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:35:33Z",
30- "mean": 2.5413663642454822,
31- "n_pasts": 768,
32- "n_runs": 96,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T08:21:42Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5423037897610032,
31+ "n_pasts": 776,
32+ "n_runs": 97,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.21877413363673873,
43- "se": 0.007894331559181142
42+ "sd": 0.21860785616260325,
43+ "se": 0.0078475646934937
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
48- "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
48+ "highres_szego": -3.782567960178534,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:09:12Z",
51- "mean": 1.3101077772598995,
52- "n_pasts": 768,
53- "n_runs": 96,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T08:16:42Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3100797821858374,
52+ "n_pasts": 776,
53+ "n_runs": 97,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.11654306086600855,
64- "se": 0.004205385472698311
63+ "sd": 0.11689636443699546,
64+ "se": 0.004196334928014665
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
69- "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
69+ "highres_szego": 0.21743203982146625,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:41:53Z",
72- "mean": 2.973460320041727,
73- "n_pasts": 768,
74- "n_runs": 96,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T08:23:57Z",
72+ "mean": 2.9721589081883866,
73+ "n_pasts": 776,
74+ "n_runs": 97,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.5278485519627273,
85- "se": 0.01904709397293967
84+ "sd": 0.5261043140974325,
85+ "se": 0.01888604422951204
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
90- "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
90+ "highres_szego": -2.782567960178534,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:19:44Z",
93- "mean": 1.7227228837435835,
94- "n_pasts": 768,
95- "n_runs": 96,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T08:17:47Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7228439647709302,
94+ "n_pasts": 776,
95+ "n_runs": 97,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.13429883973786375,
106- "se": 0.004846091954656878
105+ "sd": 0.13401870980556954,
106+ "se": 0.0048109913056165856
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111- "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
111+ "highres_szego": -1.7825679601785338,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:22:09Z",
114- "mean": 2.1334480588761857,
115- "n_pasts": 768,
116- "n_runs": 96,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T08:19:36Z",
114+ "mean": 2.1336428812520696,
115+ "n_pasts": 776,
116+ "n_runs": 97,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.20559517443443429,
127- "se": 0.007418776831488044
126+ "sd": 0.20479430223137174,
127+ "se": 0.007351687006272009
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132- "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
132+ "highres_szego": -7.756237076152649,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:53:24Z",
135- "mean": 0.4785190478696057,
136- "n_pasts": 768,
137- "n_runs": 96,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T07:58:30Z",
135+ "mean": 0.478282004131997,
136+ "n_pasts": 776,
137+ "n_runs": 97,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.23218591867008617,
147- "se": 0.008378287665388425
146+ "sd": 0.2323491791340499,
147+ "se": 0.008340849440371272
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152- "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
152+ "highres_szego": -3.7562370761526487,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:02:49Z",
155- "mean": 1.4459471249315543,
156- "n_pasts": 768,
157- "n_runs": 96,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T08:05:38Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4459569445075584,
156+ "n_pasts": 776,
157+ "n_runs": 97,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.18789089487330016,
167- "se": 0.00677992867083622
166+ "sd": 0.18741517518521564,
167+ "se": 0.006727812703649911
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172- "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
172+ "highres_szego": -6.756237076152649,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:54:18Z",
175- "mean": 0.7643191781805214,
176- "n_pasts": 768,
177- "n_runs": 96,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T07:59:07Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7640340936009913,
176+ "n_pasts": 776,
177+ "n_runs": 97,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
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186+ "sd": 0.2677161721424069,
187+ "se": 0.009610450499177593
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192- "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
192+ "highres_szego": -2.7562370761526487,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:06:23Z",
195- "mean": 1.6651700841486612,
196- "n_pasts": 768,
197- "n_runs": 96,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T08:09:00Z",
195+ "mean": 1.664987936405298,
196+ "n_pasts": 776,
197+ "n_runs": 97,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
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207- "se": 0.007362983381051508
206+ "sd": 0.20344818400036574,
207+ "se": 0.007303364177951268
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212- "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
212+ "highres_szego": -5.756237076152649,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:55:24Z",
215- "mean": 0.9879449169065531,
216- "n_pasts": 768,
217- "n_runs": 96,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T08:00:13Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9875628884221946,
216+ "n_pasts": 776,
217+ "n_runs": 97,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.19263171646149613,
227- "se": 0.006950998334594028
226+ "sd": 0.1940296307700433,
227+ "se": 0.006965257821246995
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232- "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
232+ "highres_szego": -4.756237076152649,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:56:59Z",
235- "mean": 1.2150765566607202,
236- "n_pasts": 768,
237- "n_runs": 96,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T08:01:18Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2149601929520535,
236+ "n_pasts": 776,
237+ "n_runs": 97,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.22018041851114825,
247- "se": 0.007945076493605993
246+ "sd": 0.21974079270943442,
247+ "se": 0.007888234745343382
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:50:45Z",
255- "mean": 0.46950996431059094,
256- "n_pasts": 768,
257- "n_runs": 96,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T07:57:19Z",
255+ "mean": 0.4713061511659512,
256+ "n_pasts": 776,
257+ "n_runs": 97,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.20195742883249004,
265- "se": 0.007287510993830176
264+ "sd": 0.20366163281977748,
265+ "se": 0.0073110265440184665
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:51:40Z",
273- "mean": 3.183616434659323,
274- "n_pasts": 768,
275- "n_runs": 96,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T07:57:34Z",
273+ "mean": 3.183152260949748,
274+ "n_pasts": 776,
275+ "n_runs": 97,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
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283- "se": 0.009520169935380927
282+ "sd": 0.2628358769075722,
283+ "se": 0.009435258110161951
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
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288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:50:54Z",
291- "mean": 0.9749800622428664,
292- "n_pasts": 768,
293- "n_runs": 96,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T07:57:23Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9751025258116855,
292+ "n_pasts": 776,
293+ "n_runs": 97,
294294 "params": {
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296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.0971537777783213,
301- "se": 0.0035057349845689307
300+ "sd": 0.09690626435900765,
301+ "se": 0.0034787321558858433
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
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306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
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309- "mean": 4.087090683415048,
310- "n_pasts": 768,
311- "n_runs": 96,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T07:57:38Z",
309+ "mean": 4.086220911241213,
310+ "n_pasts": 776,
311+ "n_runs": 97,
312312 "params": {
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318+ "sd": 0.23692736218692936,
319+ "se": 0.008505196634094285
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:51:03Z",
327- "mean": 1.555957302405333,
328- "n_pasts": 768,
329- "n_runs": 96,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T07:57:26Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5559487245962929,
328+ "n_pasts": 776,
329+ "n_runs": 97,
330330 "params": {
331331 "filter": "moving-average",
332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.10522191267454097,
337- "se": 0.003796868725455845
336+ "sd": 0.10479352672774042,
337+ "se": 0.003761868374225362
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:51:31Z",
345- "mean": 2.3043433298378493,
346- "n_pasts": 768,
347- "n_runs": 96,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T07:57:30Z",
345+ "mean": 2.3036115748963124,
346+ "n_pasts": 776,
347+ "n_runs": 97,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.15119176873459167,
355- "se": 0.0054556630236357595
354+ "sd": 0.15075120938128392,
355+ "se": 0.005411653034839184
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:50:29Z",
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-12T06:41:53Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-12T08:23:57Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 96
469+ "total_runs": 97
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -2302,3 +2302,27 @@
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