estimates: run 109 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (95 runs, generated 2026-08-12T03:27:10Z)
24+## Current state (96 runs, generated 2026-08-12T06:41:53Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9319 | 0.0045 | 760 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5407 | 0.0079 | 760 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3101 | 0.0042 | 760 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9743 | 0.0192 | 760 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7227 | 0.0047 | 760 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1339 | 0.0075 | 760 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4778 | 0.0084 | 760 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4456 | 0.0068 | 760 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7642 | 0.0097 | 760 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6637 | 0.0074 | 760 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9878 | 0.0070 | 760 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2145 | 0.0080 | 760 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4706 | 0.0073 | 760 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1832 | 0.0095 | 760 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9750 | 0.0035 | 760 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0864 | 0.0087 | 760 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5556 | 0.0038 | 760 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3024 | 0.0053 | 760 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1064 | 0.0026 | 760 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0188 | 0.0172 | 760 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0657 | 0.0034 | 760 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0630 | 0.0367 | 760 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0376 | 0.0049 | 760 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0628 | 0.0108 | 760 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9314 | 0.0045 | 768 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5414 | 0.0079 | 768 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3101 | 0.0042 | 768 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9735 | 0.0190 | 768 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7227 | 0.0048 | 768 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1334 | 0.0074 | 768 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4785 | 0.0084 | 768 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4459 | 0.0068 | 768 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7643 | 0.0097 | 768 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6652 | 0.0074 | 768 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9879 | 0.0070 | 768 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2151 | 0.0079 | 768 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4695 | 0.0073 | 768 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1836 | 0.0095 | 768 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9750 | 0.0035 | 768 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0871 | 0.0086 | 768 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5560 | 0.0038 | 768 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3043 | 0.0055 | 768 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1062 | 0.0026 | 768 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0165 | 0.0171 | 768 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0658 | 0.0033 | 768 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0790 | 0.0409 | 768 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0377 | 0.0049 | 768 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0622 | 0.0107 | 768 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:14:41Z",
9- "mean": 0.9318885763756688,
10- "n_pasts": 760,
11- "n_runs": 95,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:07:37Z",
9+ "mean": 0.931408713796395,
10+ "n_pasts": 768,
11+ "n_runs": 96,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.12370892789167053,
22- "se": 0.004487394455598948
21+ "sd": 0.1238608920271282,
22+ "se": 0.004469444959620602
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:22:35Z",
30- "mean": 2.5406834858603036,
31- "n_pasts": 760,
32- "n_runs": 95,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:35:33Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5413663642454822,
31+ "n_pasts": 768,
32+ "n_runs": 96,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.2184912057105038,
43- "se": 0.007925509030043574
42+ "sd": 0.21877413363673873,
43+ "se": 0.007894331559181142
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:15:36Z",
51- "mean": 1.3100784728050041,
52- "n_pasts": 760,
53- "n_runs": 95,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:09:12Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3101077772598995,
52+ "n_pasts": 768,
53+ "n_runs": 96,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.11667407604642747,
64- "se": 0.0042322135587606275
63+ "sd": 0.11654306086600855,
64+ "se": 0.004205385472698311
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:27:10Z",
72- "mean": 2.974340306435381,
73- "n_pasts": 760,
74- "n_runs": 95,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:41:53Z",
72+ "mean": 2.973460320041727,
73+ "n_pasts": 768,
74+ "n_runs": 96,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.5302091409809017,
85- "se": 0.01923270696864375
84+ "sd": 0.5278485519627273,
85+ "se": 0.01904709397293967
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:16:42Z",
93- "mean": 1.7226629955170503,
94- "n_pasts": 760,
95- "n_runs": 95,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:19:44Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7227228837435835,
94+ "n_pasts": 768,
95+ "n_runs": 96,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.13069660712811407,
106- "se": 0.004740864222070281
105+ "sd": 0.13429883973786375,
106+ "se": 0.004846091954656878
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:19:21Z",
114- "mean": 2.1338926600596264,
115- "n_pasts": 760,
116- "n_runs": 95,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:22:09Z",
114+ "mean": 2.1334480588761857,
115+ "n_pasts": 768,
116+ "n_runs": 96,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.20605893439775663,
127- "se": 0.007474543151427469
126+ "sd": 0.20559517443443429,
127+ "se": 0.007418776831488044
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:02:40Z",
135- "mean": 0.4778168318391664,
136- "n_pasts": 760,
137- "n_runs": 95,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:53:24Z",
135+ "mean": 0.4785190478696057,
136+ "n_pasts": 768,
137+ "n_runs": 96,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.2326821022794182,
147- "se": 0.008440266951469325
146+ "sd": 0.23218591867008617,
147+ "se": 0.008378287665388425
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:09:39Z",
155- "mean": 1.4456469201476023,
156- "n_pasts": 760,
157- "n_runs": 95,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:02:49Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4459471249315543,
156+ "n_pasts": 768,
157+ "n_runs": 96,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.18804134037086015,
167- "se": 0.006820976323895599
166+ "sd": 0.18789089487330016,
167+ "se": 0.00677992867083622
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:03:25Z",
175- "mean": 0.7641567508368076,
176- "n_pasts": 760,
177- "n_runs": 95,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:54:18Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7643191781805214,
176+ "n_pasts": 768,
177+ "n_runs": 96,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2686201734036248,
187- "se": 0.00974387780523814
186+ "sd": 0.2679343581061227,
187+ "se": 0.009668248361107471
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:13:51Z",
195- "mean": 1.6637389299845189,
196- "n_pasts": 760,
197- "n_runs": 95,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T06:06:23Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6651700841486612,
196+ "n_pasts": 768,
197+ "n_runs": 96,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.2044601824465055,
207- "se": 0.007416550322904982
206+ "sd": 0.20404898098026378,
207+ "se": 0.007362983381051508
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:04:19Z",
215- "mean": 0.9878401360430332,
216- "n_pasts": 760,
217- "n_runs": 95,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:55:24Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9879449169065531,
216+ "n_pasts": 768,
217+ "n_runs": 96,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.19355279222491042,
227- "se": 0.007020897695082512
226+ "sd": 0.19263171646149613,
227+ "se": 0.006950998334594028
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:05:30Z",
235- "mean": 1.214458840506892,
236- "n_pasts": 760,
237- "n_runs": 95,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:56:59Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2150765566607202,
236+ "n_pasts": 768,
237+ "n_runs": 96,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.22110867645027013,
247- "se": 0.00802045467289649
246+ "sd": 0.22018041851114825,
247+ "se": 0.007945076493605993
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:01:10Z",
255- "mean": 0.47063646645766877,
256- "n_pasts": 760,
257- "n_runs": 95,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:50:45Z",
255+ "mean": 0.46950996431059094,
256+ "n_pasts": 768,
257+ "n_runs": 96,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.20259189547253034,
265- "se": 0.007348780431504539
264+ "sd": 0.20195742883249004,
265+ "se": 0.007287510993830176
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:01:40Z",
273- "mean": 3.183183303462907,
274- "n_pasts": 760,
275- "n_runs": 95,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:51:40Z",
273+ "mean": 3.183616434659323,
274+ "n_pasts": 768,
275+ "n_runs": 96,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.26274568103040546,
283- "se": 0.00953078757032699
282+ "sd": 0.2638306883963117,
283+ "se": 0.009520169935380927
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:01:15Z",
291- "mean": 0.9750111924741227,
292- "n_pasts": 760,
293- "n_runs": 95,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:50:54Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9749800622428664,
292+ "n_pasts": 768,
293+ "n_runs": 96,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.09753810546797467,
301- "se": 0.003538078949887055
300+ "sd": 0.0971537777783213,
301+ "se": 0.0035057349845689307
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:01:46Z",
309- "mean": 4.086350330417263,
310- "n_pasts": 760,
311- "n_runs": 95,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:51:48Z",
309+ "mean": 4.087090683415048,
310+ "n_pasts": 768,
311+ "n_runs": 96,
312312 "params": {
313313 "filter": "moving-average",
314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.23846736814379507,
319- "se": 0.008650120600728206
318+ "sd": 0.23795835638724808,
319+ "se": 0.008586582569756161
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:01:22Z",
327- "mean": 1.5556333223934755,
328- "n_pasts": 760,
329- "n_runs": 95,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:51:03Z",
327+ "mean": 1.555957302405333,
328+ "n_pasts": 768,
329+ "n_runs": 96,
330330 "params": {
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332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.10384329212645509,
337- "se": 0.003766792108548957
336+ "sd": 0.10522191267454097,
337+ "se": 0.003796868725455845
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:01:32Z",
345- "mean": 2.302432206498867,
346- "n_pasts": 760,
347- "n_runs": 95,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:51:31Z",
345+ "mean": 2.3043433298378493,
346+ "n_pasts": 768,
347+ "n_runs": 96,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.14638734698627112,
355- "se": 0.005310027177757655
354+ "sd": 0.15119176873459167,
355+ "se": 0.0054556630236357595
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-12T03:01:00Z",
363- "mean": 2.106386848409576,
364- "n_pasts": 760,
365- "n_runs": 95,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-12T05:50:29Z",
363+ "mean": 2.106244746446004,
364+ "n_pasts": 768,
365+ "n_runs": 96,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.0716008575504322,
372- "se": 0.0025972360820174334
371+ "sd": 0.07135683100519688,
372+ "se": 0.0025748678493355656
373373 },
374374 {
375375 "L": 1,
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442442 {
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448- "mean": 5.06276595387188,
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450- "n_runs": 95,
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451451 "params": {
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454454 },
455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.2988829302575022,
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456+ "sd": 0.2977850875032622,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-12T03:27:10Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-12T06:41:53Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 95
469+ "total_runs": 96
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -2278,3 +2278,27 @@
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