estimates: run 38 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (30 runs, generated 2026-08-04T22:15:23Z)
24+## Current state (31 runs, generated 2026-08-04T23:59:20Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9393 | 0.0071 | 240 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5379 | 0.0134 | 240 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3205 | 0.0079 | 240 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9789 | 0.0344 | 240 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7163 | 0.0088 | 240 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1367 | 0.0139 | 240 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4721 | 0.0161 | 240 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4531 | 0.0105 | 240 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7446 | 0.0185 | 240 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6517 | 0.0132 | 240 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.0056 | 0.0112 | 240 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2164 | 0.0130 | 240 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4798 | 0.0134 | 240 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1975 | 0.0206 | 240 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9739 | 0.0075 | 240 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0816 | 0.0161 | 240 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5617 | 0.0078 | 240 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2958 | 0.0094 | 240 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1052 | 0.0034 | 240 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0082 | 0.0262 | 240 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0653 | 0.0056 | 240 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0074 | 0.0514 | 240 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0345 | 0.0088 | 240 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0639 | 0.0170 | 240 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9390 | 0.0069 | 248 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5400 | 0.0133 | 248 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3209 | 0.0077 | 248 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9756 | 0.0334 | 248 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7157 | 0.0086 | 248 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1321 | 0.0136 | 248 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4741 | 0.0159 | 248 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4532 | 0.0104 | 248 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7454 | 0.0181 | 248 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6552 | 0.0134 | 248 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.0060 | 0.0110 | 248 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2178 | 0.0126 | 248 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4793 | 0.0131 | 248 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1962 | 0.0200 | 248 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9739 | 0.0074 | 248 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0782 | 0.0156 | 248 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5624 | 0.0076 | 248 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2953 | 0.0093 | 248 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1053 | 0.0033 | 248 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0050 | 0.0256 | 248 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0643 | 0.0055 | 248 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0355 | 0.0530 | 248 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0360 | 0.0088 | 248 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0607 | 0.0166 | 248 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T22:03:20Z",
9- "mean": 0.939326992465904,
10- "n_pasts": 240,
11- "n_runs": 30,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:44:04Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9389851294027721,
10+ "n_pasts": 248,
11+ "n_runs": 31,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.10974814707249393,
22- "se": 0.007084212431481522
21+ "sd": 0.10844092630388885,
22+ "se": 0.0068860057063060915
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T22:12:03Z",
30- "mean": 2.5379136693940993,
31- "n_pasts": 240,
32- "n_runs": 30,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:57:05Z",
30+ "mean": 2.539986006894184,
31+ "n_pasts": 248,
32+ "n_runs": 31,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.20759530515692814,
43- "se": 0.013400219327060491
42+ "sd": 0.20927282876795328,
43+ "se": 0.013288837915609593
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T22:04:23Z",
51- "mean": 1.3205499880112772,
52- "n_pasts": 240,
53- "n_runs": 30,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:48:57Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3208592570458595,
52+ "n_pasts": 248,
53+ "n_runs": 31,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.12179037137674903,
64- "se": 0.007861534667842758
63+ "sd": 0.12115737016813675,
64+ "se": 0.00769350069918123
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T22:15:22Z",
72- "mean": 2.978918039527593,
73- "n_pasts": 240,
74- "n_runs": 30,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:59:20Z",
72+ "mean": 2.9755605120303072,
73+ "n_pasts": 248,
74+ "n_runs": 31,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.532829307912856,
85- "se": 0.03439398393196191
84+ "sd": 0.5263998338503473,
85+ "se": 0.03342642287593665
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T22:05:22Z",
93- "mean": 1.716314825034437,
94- "n_pasts": 240,
95- "n_runs": 30,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:49:56Z",
93+ "mean": 1.715668151126113,
94+ "n_pasts": 248,
95+ "n_runs": 31,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.13626851615010685,
106- "se": 0.008796094894362672
105+ "sd": 0.13514220884060976,
106+ "se": 0.008581538842921854
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T22:09:46Z",
114- "mean": 2.1366730610068516,
115- "n_pasts": 240,
116- "n_runs": 30,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:51:14Z",
114+ "mean": 2.132060229060329,
115+ "n_pasts": 248,
116+ "n_runs": 31,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.21498065743832856,
127- "se": 0.013876941766922803
126+ "sd": 0.21367940569080426,
127+ "se": 0.013568655830028685
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T21:45:08Z",
135- "mean": 0.4721351749232857,
136- "n_pasts": 240,
137- "n_runs": 30,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:31:29Z",
135+ "mean": 0.474140631398504,
136+ "n_pasts": 248,
137+ "n_runs": 31,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.24932734647276542,
147- "se": 0.01609401101071845
146+ "sd": 0.25052204652429294,
147+ "se": 0.01590816586246642
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T21:50:36Z",
155- "mean": 1.4531111932343876,
156- "n_pasts": 240,
157- "n_runs": 30,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:36:58Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4531806292908118,
156+ "n_pasts": 248,
157+ "n_runs": 31,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.16240506824169232,
167- "se": 0.010483202077329223
166+ "sd": 0.16313986519286583,
167+ "se": 0.01035939179914396
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T21:46:07Z",
175- "mean": 0.744552429146509,
176- "n_pasts": 240,
177- "n_runs": 30,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:32:29Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7453547577594134,
176+ "n_pasts": 248,
177+ "n_runs": 31,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.28613737099434416,
187- "se": 0.0184700878764778
186+ "sd": 0.28489623330845193,
187+ "se": 0.01809092890602465
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T22:02:33Z",
195- "mean": 1.6516848920837066,
196- "n_pasts": 240,
197- "n_runs": 30,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:43:05Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6552040764950653,
196+ "n_pasts": 248,
197+ "n_runs": 31,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.20396044428684473,
207- "se": 0.013165590066800258
206+ "sd": 0.211676680274083,
207+ "se": 0.01344148263889363
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T21:47:00Z",
215- "mean": 1.0056385670800125,
216- "n_pasts": 240,
217- "n_runs": 30,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:33:21Z",
215+ "mean": 1.0060213329706817,
216+ "n_pasts": 248,
217+ "n_runs": 31,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.17331340370148193,
227- "se": 0.01118733210350604
226+ "sd": 0.17351329201463747,
227+ "se": 0.01101810506104005
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T21:49:19Z",
235- "mean": 1.2164124226041697,
236- "n_pasts": 240,
237- "n_runs": 30,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:34:21Z",
235+ "mean": 1.21782421754674,
236+ "n_pasts": 248,
237+ "n_runs": 31,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.2009820054056482,
247- "se": 0.012973332663724075
246+ "sd": 0.19845284152097403,
247+ "se": 0.01260176803835619
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T21:43:40Z",
255- "mean": 0.4798369225096815,
256- "n_pasts": 240,
257- "n_runs": 30,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:30:06Z",
255+ "mean": 0.4792781718755563,
256+ "n_pasts": 248,
257+ "n_runs": 31,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.20737030634640113,
265- "se": 0.013385695716292364
264+ "sd": 0.20682484038469115,
265+ "se": 0.013133390497824951
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T21:44:06Z",
273- "mean": 3.197513707736967,
274- "n_pasts": 240,
275- "n_runs": 30,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:30:32Z",
273+ "mean": 3.1961839165332417,
274+ "n_pasts": 248,
275+ "n_runs": 31,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.3186242638108499,
283- "se": 0.020567107790617004
282+ "sd": 0.3146808631176458,
283+ "se": 0.01998225479023529
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T21:43:47Z",
291- "mean": 0.9739239542825996,
292- "n_pasts": 240,
293- "n_runs": 30,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:30:12Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9739387290860444,
292+ "n_pasts": 248,
293+ "n_runs": 31,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.11648387494551139,
301- "se": 0.00751900179609455
300+ "sd": 0.11580397807446069,
301+ "se": 0.0073535599612918915
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T21:44:11Z",
309- "mean": 4.081647027033154,
310- "n_pasts": 240,
311- "n_runs": 30,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:30:36Z",
309+ "mean": 4.0781613080992685,
310+ "n_pasts": 248,
311+ "n_runs": 31,
312312 "params": {
313313 "filter": "moving-average",
314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.24897955096035929,
319- "se": 0.01607156090692787
318+ "sd": 0.24602171170861384,
319+ "se": 0.015622394315899105
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T21:43:56Z",
327- "mean": 1.5616878599935888,
328- "n_pasts": 240,
329- "n_runs": 30,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:30:21Z",
327+ "mean": 1.562413555728848,
328+ "n_pasts": 248,
329+ "n_runs": 31,
330330 "params": {
331331 "filter": "moving-average",
332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.12080927791464229,
337- "se": 0.0077982053571792175
336+ "sd": 0.11954527314665696,
337+ "se": 0.007591132435948948
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T21:44:01Z",
345- "mean": 2.2958381962566516,
346- "n_pasts": 240,
347- "n_runs": 30,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:30:27Z",
345+ "mean": 2.2953029765967865,
346+ "n_pasts": 248,
347+ "n_runs": 31,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.14598751273542251,
355- "se": 0.00942345342630891
354+ "sd": 0.14591444109177046,
355+ "se": 0.009265576274908332
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T21:43:24Z",
363- "mean": 2.1051965453917663,
364- "n_pasts": 240,
365- "n_runs": 30,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T23:29:48Z",
363+ "mean": 2.105251380067606,
364+ "n_pasts": 248,
365+ "n_runs": 31,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.051999819018499475,
372- "se": 0.0033565738844074694
371+ "sd": 0.05158449917256637,
372+ "se": 0.0032756189730785757
373373 },
374374 {
375375 "L": 1,
376376 "M": 512,
377377 "highres_szego": 6.047095585180641,
378378 "id": "none_s16",
379- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T21:43:30Z",
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442442 {
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450- "n_runs": 30,
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451451 "params": {
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454454 },
455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.26401819111032676,
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456+ "sd": 0.2616113655996343,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-04T22:15:23Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-04T23:59:20Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 30
469+ "total_runs": 31
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -718,3 +718,27 @@
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