estimates: run 158 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (144 runs, generated 2026-08-16T09:22:47Z)
24+## Current state (145 runs, generated 2026-08-16T11:24:32Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9332 | 0.0037 | 1152 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5499 | 0.0079 | 1152 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3124 | 0.0033 | 1152 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9794 | 0.0177 | 1152 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7268 | 0.0043 | 1152 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1296 | 0.0056 | 1152 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4780 | 0.0068 | 1152 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4418 | 0.0058 | 1152 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7605 | 0.0078 | 1152 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6655 | 0.0062 | 1152 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9929 | 0.0056 | 1152 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2085 | 0.0063 | 1152 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4806 | 0.0062 | 1152 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1764 | 0.0072 | 1152 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9747 | 0.0028 | 1152 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0888 | 0.0072 | 1152 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5570 | 0.0031 | 1152 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3105 | 0.0050 | 1152 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1057 | 0.0019 | 1152 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0077 | 0.0143 | 1152 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0671 | 0.0034 | 1152 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0498 | 0.0307 | 1152 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0387 | 0.0041 | 1152 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0489 | 0.0084 | 1152 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9332 | 0.0036 | 1160 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5508 | 0.0079 | 1160 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3127 | 0.0033 | 1160 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9819 | 0.0177 | 1160 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7264 | 0.0043 | 1160 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1293 | 0.0055 | 1160 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4775 | 0.0068 | 1160 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4424 | 0.0058 | 1160 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7596 | 0.0078 | 1160 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6653 | 0.0062 | 1160 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9923 | 0.0056 | 1160 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2088 | 0.0063 | 1160 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4799 | 0.0062 | 1160 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1763 | 0.0072 | 1160 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9747 | 0.0028 | 1160 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0886 | 0.0072 | 1160 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5565 | 0.0031 | 1160 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3114 | 0.0050 | 1160 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1057 | 0.0019 | 1160 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0194 | 0.0173 | 1160 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0673 | 0.0034 | 1160 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0485 | 0.0305 | 1160 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0385 | 0.0040 | 1160 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0482 | 0.0084 | 1160 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T09:03:44Z",
9- "mean": 0.9332102064769917,
10- "n_pasts": 1152,
11- "n_runs": 144,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T11:02:41Z",
9+ "mean": 0.933225118147277,
10+ "n_pasts": 1160,
11+ "n_runs": 145,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.12406828384270215,
22- "se": 0.003655396868139669
21+ "sd": 0.12384333074455214,
22+ "se": 0.003636165393262397
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T09:17:17Z",
30- "mean": 2.5498557054354083,
31- "n_pasts": 1152,
32- "n_runs": 144,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T11:18:56Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5508408630303308,
31+ "n_pasts": 1160,
32+ "n_runs": 145,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.2681320080961198,
43- "se": 0.007899915049080525
42+ "sd": 0.26837417691248494,
43+ "se": 0.007879737153931364
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T09:06:06Z",
51- "mean": 1.3124045361825454,
52- "n_pasts": 1152,
53- "n_runs": 144,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T11:04:24Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3126912546089498,
52+ "n_pasts": 1160,
53+ "n_runs": 145,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.11206954780037924,
64- "se": 0.003301880717256587
63+ "sd": 0.11185848144922143,
64+ "se": 0.00328427810155966
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T09:22:46Z",
72- "mean": 2.9793906848107325,
73- "n_pasts": 1152,
74- "n_runs": 144,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T11:24:31Z",
72+ "mean": 2.981916830196251,
73+ "n_pasts": 1160,
74+ "n_runs": 145,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.5997439167483387,
85- "se": 0.017670124604505438
84+ "sd": 0.6040959211948823,
85+ "se": 0.017736866972599793
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T09:08:41Z",
93- "mean": 1.7268166326793326,
94- "n_pasts": 1152,
95- "n_runs": 144,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T11:05:55Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7263896045826546,
94+ "n_pasts": 1160,
95+ "n_runs": 145,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.1454330980405483,
106- "se": 0.0042848637430599875
105+ "sd": 0.14568355062515842,
106+ "se": 0.004277416328889348
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T09:12:44Z",
114- "mean": 2.1295659447697224,
115- "n_pasts": 1152,
116- "n_runs": 144,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T11:11:26Z",
114+ "mean": 2.1293032684239783,
115+ "n_pasts": 1160,
116+ "n_runs": 145,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.18859137956091215,
127- "se": 0.00555642680670196
126+ "sd": 0.18837198927392793,
127+ "se": 0.005530792044592866
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T08:53:51Z",
135- "mean": 0.4779850985788349,
136- "n_pasts": 1152,
137- "n_runs": 144,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T10:46:58Z",
135+ "mean": 0.4775446518005356,
136+ "n_pasts": 1160,
137+ "n_runs": 145,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.23220983768372505,
147- "se": 0.0068415479535162286
146+ "sd": 0.23162445143682367,
147+ "se": 0.0068007280608852185
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T08:58:15Z",
155- "mean": 1.4418036041051105,
156- "n_pasts": 1152,
157- "n_runs": 144,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T10:58:40Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4424481840756354,
156+ "n_pasts": 1160,
157+ "n_runs": 145,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.1962372077592911,
167- "se": 0.005781694180321172
166+ "sd": 0.19645932119954224,
167+ "se": 0.005768244286025241
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T08:54:54Z",
175- "mean": 0.7604614239943409,
176- "n_pasts": 1152,
177- "n_runs": 144,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T10:48:18Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7596215661273742,
176+ "n_pasts": 1160,
177+ "n_runs": 145,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2663403086975286,
187- "se": 0.00784712659930587
186+ "sd": 0.2668607218546757,
187+ "se": 0.007835300583367743
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T08:59:54Z",
195- "mean": 1.665504739310407,
196- "n_pasts": 1152,
197- "n_runs": 144,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T11:01:31Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6652995926741194,
196+ "n_pasts": 1160,
197+ "n_runs": 145,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.2113984527756926,
207- "se": 0.006228386645418181
206+ "sd": 0.21113920776797232,
207+ "se": 0.0061992605966834655
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T08:56:03Z",
215- "mean": 0.9928593272228482,
216- "n_pasts": 1152,
217- "n_runs": 144,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T10:49:40Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9923472210558841,
216+ "n_pasts": 1160,
217+ "n_runs": 145,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.18959647185012843,
227- "se": 0.005586039622261257
226+ "sd": 0.19041237336963096,
227+ "se": 0.005590699784421518
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T08:56:54Z",
235- "mean": 1.2084938191285315,
236- "n_pasts": 1152,
237- "n_runs": 144,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T10:50:49Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2087684592646668,
236+ "n_pasts": 1160,
237+ "n_runs": 145,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.21415956832412184,
247- "se": 0.006309736792415428
246+ "sd": 0.21362273072066817,
247+ "se": 0.006272179341356058
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T08:52:08Z",
255- "mean": 0.48057989647941096,
256- "n_pasts": 1152,
257- "n_runs": 144,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T10:45:01Z",
255+ "mean": 0.47993393256218575,
256+ "n_pasts": 1160,
257+ "n_runs": 145,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.2108337573666155,
265- "se": 0.006211749147373876
264+ "sd": 0.21029675904446118,
265+ "se": 0.00617452545046596
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T08:52:34Z",
273- "mean": 3.1763890402502537,
274- "n_pasts": 1152,
275- "n_runs": 144,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T10:45:36Z",
273+ "mean": 3.1762582791758853,
274+ "n_pasts": 1160,
275+ "n_runs": 145,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.2450999335129156,
283- "se": 0.0072213260439731065
282+ "sd": 0.2444095725542909,
283+ "se": 0.007176112142341278
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T08:52:13Z",
291- "mean": 0.9747006031659181,
292- "n_pasts": 1152,
293- "n_runs": 144,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T10:45:07Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9747292208732037,
292+ "n_pasts": 1160,
293+ "n_runs": 145,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.09472108270209668,
301- "se": 0.002790746662499348
300+ "sd": 0.09456912760315488,
301+ "se": 0.0027766451935219306
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T08:52:40Z",
309- "mean": 4.08876007308412,
310- "n_pasts": 1152,
311- "n_runs": 144,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T10:45:42Z",
309+ "mean": 4.088600372188322,
310+ "n_pasts": 1160,
311+ "n_runs": 145,
312312 "params": {
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314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.24529986735735074,
319- "se": 0.0072272166513559725
318+ "sd": 0.24487445628381552,
319+ "se": 0.00718976159862629
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T08:52:18Z",
327- "mean": 1.5569563428893802,
328- "n_pasts": 1152,
329- "n_runs": 144,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T10:45:11Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5565388026018525,
328+ "n_pasts": 1160,
329+ "n_runs": 145,
330330 "params": {
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332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.10537727301741043,
337- "se": 0.0031047076805648796
336+ "sd": 0.10528732594404719,
337+ "se": 0.003091342332648976
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T08:52:28Z",
345- "mean": 2.3104812540247615,
346- "n_pasts": 1152,
347- "n_runs": 144,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T10:45:31Z",
345+ "mean": 2.311352456817341,
346+ "n_pasts": 1160,
347+ "n_runs": 145,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.16821156522086264,
355- "se": 0.004955980768403132
354+ "sd": 0.16942511841136104,
355+ "se": 0.004974492761241203
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-16T08:51:56Z",
363- "mean": 2.1057124615756573,
364- "n_pasts": 1152,
365- "n_runs": 144,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-16T10:44:37Z",
363+ "mean": 2.1056638645011585,
364+ "n_pasts": 1160,
365+ "n_runs": 145,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.06498337169792034,
372- "se": 0.001914590949665227
371+ "sd": 0.06482860002907534,
372+ "se": 0.0019034332369952266
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442442 {
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448- "mean": 5.048929107041301,
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450- "n_runs": 144,
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451451 "params": {
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454454 },
455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.2856771693262482,
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456+ "sd": 0.28497398911232746,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-16T09:22:47Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-16T11:24:32Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 144
469+ "total_runs": 145
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -3454,3 +3454,27 @@
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