1# Cached entropy estimates
3Machine-generated by [`.github/workflows/estimates.yml`][wf] on `main` — do not
4edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent
5pasts, appends one record per cell to `runs.jsonl`, and rebuilds
6`estimates.json` from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.
8- **`runs.jsonl`** — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the
9 cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares,
10 the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times
11 (`thin='auto'` matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the
12 seed, and the code commit that produced them.
13- **`estimates.json`** — pooled `mean` and `se` per cell over every past ever
14 drawn for it, alongside the analytic `predicted` rate for comparison.
16The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the
17entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.
19Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
20`access-control-allow-origin: *`):
22 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
24## Current state (82 runs, generated 2026-08-10T21:31:11Z)
26| cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
27| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9332 | 0.0048 | 656 | 0.9513 |
29| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5459 | 0.0087 | 656 | 2.5680 |
30| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3097 | 0.0046 | 656 | 1.3319 |
31| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9586 | 0.0162 | 656 | 2.9938 |
32| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7201 | 0.0051 | 656 | 1.7342 |
33| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1358 | 0.0083 | 656 | 2.1476 |
34| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4756 | 0.0092 | 656 | 0.6166 |
35| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4449 | 0.0072 | 656 | 1.4888 |
36| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7619 | 0.0107 | 656 | 0.8251 |
37| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6580 | 0.0080 | 656 | 1.7179 |
38| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9866 | 0.0076 | 656 | 1.0415 |
39| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2200 | 0.0084 | 656 | 1.2632 |
40| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4787 | 0.0081 | 656 | 0.6100 |
41| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1884 | 0.0107 | 656 | 3.1777 |
42| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9741 | 0.0039 | 656 | 0.9825 |
43| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0841 | 0.0091 | 656 | 4.1125 |
44| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5570 | 0.0041 | 656 | 1.5529 |
45| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3004 | 0.0058 | 656 | 2.3064 |
46| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1064 | 0.0029 | 656 | 2.1048 |
47| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0239 | 0.0188 | 656 | 6.0473 |
48| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0656 | 0.0036 | 656 | 3.0620 |
49| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0804 | 0.0407 | 656 | 7.0472 |
50| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0390 | 0.0054 | 656 | 4.0508 |
51| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0683 | 0.0121 | 656 | 5.0480 |
53[wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml