# Cached entropy estimates

Machine-generated by [`.github/workflows/estimates.yml`][wf] on `main` — do not
edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent
pasts, appends one record per cell to `runs.jsonl`, and rebuilds
`estimates.json` from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

- **`runs.jsonl`** — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the
  cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares,
  the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times
  (`thin='auto'` matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the
  seed, and the code commit that produced them.
- **`estimates.json`** — pooled `mean` and `se` per cell over every past ever
  drawn for it, alongside the analytic `predicted` rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the
entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
`access-control-allow-origin: *`):

    https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

## Current state (23 runs, generated 2026-08-03T23:57:50Z)

| cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9405 | 0.0084 | 184 | 0.9513 |
| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5447 | 0.0164 | 184 | 2.5680 |
| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3181 | 0.0091 | 184 | 1.3319 |
| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9446 | 0.0265 | 184 | 2.9938 |
| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7180 | 0.0094 | 184 | 1.7342 |
| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1432 | 0.0166 | 184 | 2.1476 |
| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4607 | 0.0177 | 184 | 0.6166 |
| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4516 | 0.0124 | 184 | 1.4888 |
| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7420 | 0.0211 | 184 | 0.8251 |
| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6400 | 0.0149 | 184 | 1.7179 |
| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.0159 | 0.0117 | 184 | 1.0415 |
| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2192 | 0.0140 | 184 | 1.2632 |
| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4862 | 0.0153 | 184 | 0.6100 |
| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.2192 | 0.0259 | 184 | 3.1777 |
| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9746 | 0.0090 | 184 | 0.9825 |
| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0861 | 0.0194 | 184 | 4.1125 |
| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5587 | 0.0090 | 184 | 1.5529 |
| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2965 | 0.0113 | 184 | 2.3064 |
| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1038 | 0.0037 | 184 | 2.1048 |
| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 5.9889 | 0.0291 | 184 | 6.0473 |
| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0642 | 0.0059 | 184 | 3.0620 |
| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 6.9724 | 0.0572 | 184 | 7.0472 |
| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0408 | 0.0110 | 184 | 4.0508 |
| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0595 | 0.0193 | 184 | 5.0480 |

[wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml