estimates: run 172 from efed18a
3 changed files+207−183
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (158 runs, generated 2026-08-17T13:33:10Z)
24+## Current state (159 runs, generated 2026-08-17T15:21:47Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9339 | 0.0034 | 1264 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5521 | 0.0074 | 1264 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3128 | 0.0032 | 1264 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9838 | 0.0179 | 1264 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7269 | 0.0042 | 1264 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1301 | 0.0053 | 1264 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4800 | 0.0066 | 1264 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4453 | 0.0059 | 1264 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7572 | 0.0075 | 1264 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6671 | 0.0059 | 1264 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9928 | 0.0053 | 1264 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2094 | 0.0060 | 1264 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4815 | 0.0059 | 1264 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1734 | 0.0067 | 1264 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9749 | 0.0027 | 1264 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0883 | 0.0068 | 1264 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5558 | 0.0029 | 1264 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3102 | 0.0051 | 1264 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1057 | 0.0018 | 1264 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0199 | 0.0162 | 1264 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0644 | 0.0032 | 1264 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0419 | 0.0288 | 1264 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0430 | 0.0041 | 1264 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0459 | 0.0078 | 1264 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9341 | 0.0034 | 1272 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5516 | 0.0074 | 1272 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3133 | 0.0032 | 1272 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9828 | 0.0178 | 1272 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7271 | 0.0042 | 1272 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1303 | 0.0053 | 1272 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4794 | 0.0066 | 1272 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4449 | 0.0059 | 1272 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7579 | 0.0075 | 1272 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6668 | 0.0059 | 1272 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9921 | 0.0053 | 1272 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2089 | 0.0059 | 1272 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4811 | 0.0059 | 1272 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1736 | 0.0067 | 1272 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9745 | 0.0027 | 1272 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0886 | 0.0068 | 1272 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5558 | 0.0029 | 1272 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3101 | 0.0051 | 1272 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1060 | 0.0019 | 1272 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0195 | 0.0161 | 1272 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0642 | 0.0032 | 1272 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0474 | 0.0291 | 1272 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0426 | 0.0041 | 1272 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0458 | 0.0078 | 1272 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+158−158View file
@@ -3,12 +3,12 @@
33 {
44 "L": 101,
55 "M": 512,
6- "highres_szego": -4.782567960178533,
6+ "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:24:24Z",
9- "mean": 0.9339116802129773,
10- "n_pasts": 1264,
11- "n_runs": 158,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T15:08:29Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9341069825591547,
10+ "n_pasts": 1272,
11+ "n_runs": 159,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.12223375302368285,
22- "se": 0.003438092915293134
21+ "sd": 0.12204726791491917,
22+ "se": 0.003422035466484903
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
27- "highres_szego": -0.7825679601785338,
27+ "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:29:17Z",
30- "mean": 2.552063035019369,
31- "n_pasts": 1264,
32- "n_runs": 158,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T15:18:45Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5515600250590054,
31+ "n_pasts": 1272,
32+ "n_runs": 159,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.26357434408878627,
43- "se": 0.007413607638220153
42+ "sd": 0.2632269980002496,
43+ "se": 0.0073805185341891105
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
48- "highres_szego": -3.782567960178534,
48+ "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:25:40Z",
51- "mean": 1.312762709891823,
52- "n_pasts": 1264,
53- "n_runs": 158,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T15:10:20Z",
51+ "mean": 1.313263845607025,
52+ "n_pasts": 1272,
53+ "n_runs": 159,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.11516999910718714,
64- "se": 0.0032394093136289305
63+ "sd": 0.11508526052776814,
64+ "se": 0.003226830472520033
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
69- "highres_szego": 0.21743203982146625,
69+ "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:33:10Z",
72- "mean": 2.983789800622911,
73- "n_pasts": 1264,
74- "n_runs": 158,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T15:21:46Z",
72+ "mean": 2.9828006551995294,
73+ "n_pasts": 1272,
74+ "n_runs": 159,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.6352727630213915,
85- "se": 0.01786844248658032
84+ "sd": 0.6335637430358086,
85+ "se": 0.017764245246840442
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
90- "highres_szego": -2.782567960178534,
90+ "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:26:20Z",
93- "mean": 1.7268552417100207,
94- "n_pasts": 1264,
95- "n_runs": 158,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T15:12:51Z",
93+ "mean": 1.727058389921776,
94+ "n_pasts": 1272,
95+ "n_runs": 159,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.14851706229454786,
106- "se": 0.00417736874671681
105+ "sd": 0.14878300248177173,
106+ "se": 0.004171668239699255
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111- "highres_szego": -1.7825679601785338,
111+ "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:27:37Z",
114- "mean": 2.1301090038980477,
115- "n_pasts": 1264,
116- "n_runs": 158,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T15:16:04Z",
114+ "mean": 2.1303006565709053,
115+ "n_pasts": 1272,
116+ "n_runs": 159,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.1879142910229714,
127- "se": 0.005285502381025922
126+ "sd": 0.1874857016763451,
127+ "se": 0.005256838039525122
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132- "highres_szego": -7.756237076152649,
132+ "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:14:47Z",
135- "mean": 0.4800141038767569,
136- "n_pasts": 1264,
137- "n_runs": 158,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T14:57:32Z",
135+ "mean": 0.47942466776832154,
136+ "n_pasts": 1272,
137+ "n_runs": 159,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.23453687660338088,
147- "se": 0.006596865054686092
146+ "sd": 0.2346432864095113,
147+ "se": 0.006579071058154908
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152- "highres_szego": -3.7562370761526487,
152+ "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:21:49Z",
155- "mean": 1.4453275527464868,
156- "n_pasts": 1264,
157- "n_runs": 158,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T15:03:20Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4449142931430237,
156+ "n_pasts": 1272,
157+ "n_runs": 159,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.20979750524712373,
167- "se": 0.005901015869950073
166+ "sd": 0.21017779819712437,
167+ "se": 0.005893092831866221
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172- "highres_szego": -6.756237076152649,
172+ "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:15:38Z",
175- "mean": 0.7571825856390325,
176- "n_pasts": 1264,
177- "n_runs": 158,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T14:58:55Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7578686877146994,
176+ "n_pasts": 1272,
177+ "n_runs": 159,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2683289634970456,
187- "se": 0.007547341757463669
186+ "sd": 0.26813400722448694,
187+ "se": 0.0075181042408303655
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192- "highres_szego": -2.7562370761526487,
192+ "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:23:28Z",
195- "mean": 1.6671357053830378,
196- "n_pasts": 1264,
197- "n_runs": 158,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T15:07:21Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6668414266767235,
196+ "n_pasts": 1272,
197+ "n_runs": 159,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.20902932974605867,
207- "se": 0.005879409245899171
206+ "sd": 0.20920756025141016,
207+ "se": 0.005865888710726221
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212- "highres_szego": -5.756237076152649,
212+ "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:16:13Z",
215- "mean": 0.9928452116711485,
216- "n_pasts": 1264,
217- "n_runs": 158,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T14:59:55Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9920828769041831,
216+ "n_pasts": 1272,
217+ "n_runs": 159,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.18845799143523703,
227- "se": 0.0053007951499151355
226+ "sd": 0.18927720513919538,
227+ "se": 0.005307069302321417
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232- "highres_szego": -4.756237076152649,
232+ "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:20:19Z",
235- "mean": 1.2094004261630555,
236- "n_pasts": 1264,
237- "n_runs": 158,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T15:01:23Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2089216749154466,
236+ "n_pasts": 1272,
237+ "n_runs": 159,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.21181517047335693,
247- "se": 0.005957767138303927
246+ "sd": 0.2116215780142839,
247+ "se": 0.005933574407771379
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:12:03Z",
255- "mean": 0.48147855723528754,
256- "n_pasts": 1264,
257- "n_runs": 158,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T14:50:07Z",
255+ "mean": 0.4811124588891367,
256+ "n_pasts": 1272,
257+ "n_runs": 159,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.20960025981101507,
265- "se": 0.005895467908608105
264+ "sd": 0.20904297574628972,
265+ "se": 0.005861273990352892
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:14:04Z",
273- "mean": 3.173443069595551,
274- "n_pasts": 1264,
275- "n_runs": 158,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T14:50:33Z",
273+ "mean": 3.1735767860440145,
274+ "n_pasts": 1272,
275+ "n_runs": 159,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.2376130338987048,
283- "se": 0.006683388738543949
282+ "sd": 0.2375286095401067,
283+ "se": 0.006659971501514686
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:12:21Z",
291- "mean": 0.9749025427473997,
292- "n_pasts": 1264,
293- "n_runs": 158,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T14:50:12Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9744764918483996,
292+ "n_pasts": 1272,
293+ "n_runs": 159,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.09501032476712136,
301- "se": 0.00267237417146351
300+ "sd": 0.09510302455614458,
301+ "se": 0.002666556397050889
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:14:08Z",
309- "mean": 4.088303195286408,
310- "n_pasts": 1264,
311- "n_runs": 158,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T14:50:40Z",
309+ "mean": 4.08863403639841,
310+ "n_pasts": 1272,
311+ "n_runs": 159,
312312 "params": {
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314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
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317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
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319- "se": 0.006810863187999716
318+ "sd": 0.24360419157019958,
319+ "se": 0.006830322362633591
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:12:25Z",
327- "mean": 1.55575736699708,
328- "n_pasts": 1264,
329- "n_runs": 158,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T14:50:18Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5557883896614728,
328+ "n_pasts": 1272,
329+ "n_runs": 159,
330330 "params": {
331331 "filter": "moving-average",
332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.10475422134962008,
337- "se": 0.002946442675284603
336+ "sd": 0.10475729482463103,
337+ "se": 0.0029372486937831854
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T13:14:00Z",
345- "mean": 2.3101783249204964,
346- "n_pasts": 1264,
347- "n_runs": 158,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T14:50:24Z",
345+ "mean": 2.3100511014228804,
346+ "n_pasts": 1272,
347+ "n_runs": 159,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.18281390366772984,
355- "se": 0.005142042778440463
354+ "sd": 0.1823744399783661,
355+ "se": 0.00511352537789993
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
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451451 "params": {
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455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.27838468030949326,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-17T13:33:10Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-17T15:21:47Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 158
469+ "total_runs": 159
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -3790,3 +3790,27 @@
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