estimates: run 149 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (135 runs, generated 2026-08-15T15:15:40Z)
24+## Current state (136 runs, generated 2026-08-15T17:11:42Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9323 | 0.0038 | 1080 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5509 | 0.0083 | 1080 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3116 | 0.0034 | 1080 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9805 | 0.0185 | 1080 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7242 | 0.0042 | 1080 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1302 | 0.0058 | 1080 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4784 | 0.0071 | 1080 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4403 | 0.0060 | 1080 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7605 | 0.0081 | 1080 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6670 | 0.0065 | 1080 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9942 | 0.0057 | 1080 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2098 | 0.0065 | 1080 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4817 | 0.0064 | 1080 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1759 | 0.0076 | 1080 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9759 | 0.0029 | 1080 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0877 | 0.0074 | 1080 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5557 | 0.0032 | 1080 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3083 | 0.0050 | 1080 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1053 | 0.0020 | 1080 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0115 | 0.0150 | 1080 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0672 | 0.0036 | 1080 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0493 | 0.0320 | 1080 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0386 | 0.0042 | 1080 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0514 | 0.0088 | 1080 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9328 | 0.0038 | 1088 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5515 | 0.0083 | 1088 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3115 | 0.0034 | 1088 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9808 | 0.0184 | 1088 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7243 | 0.0042 | 1088 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1299 | 0.0058 | 1088 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4787 | 0.0071 | 1088 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4410 | 0.0059 | 1088 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7611 | 0.0081 | 1088 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6670 | 0.0064 | 1088 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9942 | 0.0057 | 1088 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2100 | 0.0065 | 1088 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4818 | 0.0064 | 1088 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1760 | 0.0075 | 1088 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9760 | 0.0029 | 1088 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0882 | 0.0074 | 1088 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5557 | 0.0032 | 1088 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3088 | 0.0050 | 1088 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1056 | 0.0020 | 1088 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0112 | 0.0149 | 1088 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0672 | 0.0036 | 1088 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0479 | 0.0319 | 1088 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0382 | 0.0041 | 1088 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0512 | 0.0088 | 1088 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:56:32Z",
9- "mean": 0.9322887246187133,
10- "n_pasts": 1080,
11- "n_runs": 135,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:59:54Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9327804236325231,
10+ "n_pasts": 1088,
11+ "n_runs": 136,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.1255858216342223,
22- "se": 0.00382145485621577
21+ "sd": 0.125296528504943,
22+ "se": 0.0037986089819786327
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T15:12:36Z",
30- "mean": 2.5509263854802358,
31- "n_pasts": 1080,
32- "n_runs": 135,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T17:08:56Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5514695792753717,
31+ "n_pasts": 1088,
32+ "n_runs": 136,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.2726125712292116,
43- "se": 0.008295336373429059
42+ "sd": 0.27269072986627635,
43+ "se": 0.008267152076216396
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:57:42Z",
51- "mean": 1.3116159670325493,
52- "n_pasts": 1080,
53- "n_runs": 135,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T17:00:47Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3115048218741194,
52+ "n_pasts": 1088,
53+ "n_runs": 136,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.11250073278661055,
64- "se": 0.003423288282393757
63+ "sd": 0.11221265900369634,
64+ "se": 0.0034019459235562987
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T15:15:40Z",
72- "mean": 2.980456867738006,
73- "n_pasts": 1080,
74- "n_runs": 135,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T17:11:42Z",
72+ "mean": 2.9808005508767215,
73+ "n_pasts": 1088,
74+ "n_runs": 136,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.6089800009864499,
85- "se": 0.018530671311655384
84+ "sd": 0.608111946303462,
85+ "se": 0.01843610137359639
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:58:31Z",
93- "mean": 1.724226784060478,
94- "n_pasts": 1080,
95- "n_runs": 135,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T17:01:41Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7242627876635754,
94+ "n_pasts": 1088,
95+ "n_runs": 136,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.13893651399868184,
106- "se": 0.004227703487678352
105+ "sd": 0.13867837099053654,
106+ "se": 0.004204305673401281
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T15:09:03Z",
114- "mean": 2.1301638603751156,
115- "n_pasts": 1080,
116- "n_runs": 135,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T17:03:28Z",
114+ "mean": 2.1298501992881333,
115+ "n_pasts": 1088,
116+ "n_runs": 136,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.19203369761553382,
127- "se": 0.00584339933250855
126+ "sd": 0.1916592098366281,
127+ "se": 0.005810523281462037
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:46:05Z",
135- "mean": 0.4784334483630273,
136- "n_pasts": 1080,
137- "n_runs": 135,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:51:06Z",
135+ "mean": 0.4786526510571181,
136+ "n_pasts": 1088,
137+ "n_runs": 136,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.2336845365721981,
147- "se": 0.007110794001151882
146+ "sd": 0.2344704795733815,
147+ "se": 0.007108430539487353
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:52:56Z",
155- "mean": 1.440271499694511,
156- "n_pasts": 1080,
157- "n_runs": 135,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:56:25Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4410294442586977,
156+ "n_pasts": 1088,
157+ "n_runs": 136,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.19578095023662023,
167- "se": 0.005957424598577405
166+ "sd": 0.19547608779729306,
167+ "se": 0.005926239391696697
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:47:10Z",
175- "mean": 0.7604726289868678,
176- "n_pasts": 1080,
177- "n_runs": 135,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:52:05Z",
175+ "mean": 0.761056814895164,
176+ "n_pasts": 1088,
177+ "n_runs": 136,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.26744940493935626,
187- "se": 0.008138226226478834
186+ "sd": 0.2669225582514803,
187+ "se": 0.008092278687727472
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:55:10Z",
195- "mean": 1.666968426861394,
196- "n_pasts": 1080,
197- "n_runs": 135,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:58:49Z",
195+ "mean": 1.667044382859165,
196+ "n_pasts": 1088,
197+ "n_runs": 136,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.21253192144087088,
207- "se": 0.006467140420171158
206+ "sd": 0.21259448121345015,
207+ "se": 0.006445216922547385
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:48:08Z",
215- "mean": 0.9941665306729983,
216- "n_pasts": 1080,
217- "n_runs": 135,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:53:03Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9942405553666596,
216+ "n_pasts": 1088,
217+ "n_runs": 136,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.18640888912280157,
227- "se": 0.005672241860668768
226+ "sd": 0.18692178416879773,
227+ "se": 0.005666898969535736
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:49:24Z",
235- "mean": 1.2097896902472978,
236- "n_pasts": 1080,
237- "n_runs": 135,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:54:31Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2099577825157524,
236+ "n_pasts": 1088,
237+ "n_runs": 136,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.21516073579672365,
247- "se": 0.006547132693626379
246+ "sd": 0.21464255460813492,
247+ "se": 0.006507308267659904
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:44:00Z",
255- "mean": 0.4816698593648545,
256- "n_pasts": 1080,
257- "n_runs": 135,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:45:55Z",
255+ "mean": 0.48184541024904703,
256+ "n_pasts": 1088,
257+ "n_runs": 136,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.2114563841867378,
265- "se": 0.006434412863753055
264+ "sd": 0.21147375687300785,
265+ "se": 0.006411239975247059
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:44:22Z",
273- "mean": 3.175942865517551,
274- "n_pasts": 1080,
275- "n_runs": 135,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:46:26Z",
273+ "mean": 3.176000040478602,
274+ "n_pasts": 1088,
275+ "n_runs": 136,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.248535037094064,
283- "se": 0.0075626803414890025
282+ "sd": 0.2478062111288778,
283+ "se": 0.007512729288003484
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:44:04Z",
291- "mean": 0.975859073672359,
292- "n_pasts": 1080,
293- "n_runs": 135,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:46:02Z",
291+ "mean": 0.976015251032855,
292+ "n_pasts": 1088,
293+ "n_runs": 136,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.09518951974508275,
301- "se": 0.002896524844581402
300+ "sd": 0.09493717287526308,
301+ "se": 0.0028782058203105413
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:44:32Z",
309- "mean": 4.087749976823316,
310- "n_pasts": 1080,
311- "n_runs": 135,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:46:33Z",
309+ "mean": 4.088167693438935,
310+ "n_pasts": 1088,
311+ "n_runs": 136,
312312 "params": {
313313 "filter": "moving-average",
314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.24436524729949496,
319- "se": 0.007435797678681209
318+ "sd": 0.24404380686190622,
319+ "se": 0.007398664654187319
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:44:10Z",
327- "mean": 1.55567252692556,
328- "n_pasts": 1080,
329- "n_runs": 135,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:46:08Z",
327+ "mean": 1.55566338062887,
328+ "n_pasts": 1088,
329+ "n_runs": 136,
330330 "params": {
331331 "filter": "moving-average",
332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.105479468403258,
337- "se": 0.0032096380110065463
336+ "sd": 0.10528473947779368,
337+ "se": 0.0031919125120042713
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:44:16Z",
345- "mean": 2.3082940196534256,
346- "n_pasts": 1080,
347- "n_runs": 135,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:46:17Z",
345+ "mean": 2.3087650282553405,
346+ "n_pasts": 1088,
347+ "n_runs": 136,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.16543789020457814,
355- "se": 0.00503411468506169
354+ "sd": 0.16512321067568098,
355+ "se": 0.005006032638654047
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-15T14:43:37Z",
363- "mean": 2.1053439392102207,
364- "n_pasts": 1080,
365- "n_runs": 135,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-15T16:45:44Z",
363+ "mean": 2.1055803719565316,
364+ "n_pasts": 1088,
365+ "n_runs": 136,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.06540453805895803,
372- "se": 0.0019901967143386924
371+ "sd": 0.06536261491836452,
372+ "se": 0.0019815953329043352
373373 },
374374 {
375375 "L": 1,
376376 "M": 512,
377377 "highres_szego": 6.047095585180641,
378378 "id": "none_s16",
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442442 {
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450- "n_runs": 135,
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451451 "params": {
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454454 },
455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.2905975678477512,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-15T15:15:40Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-15T17:11:42Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 135
469+ "total_runs": 136
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -3238,3 +3238,27 @@
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